Trump and the returning assassin

Another gunman, another seemingly close encounter with fate. Even in a country with a dark history of political violence, Donald Trump does seem to attract a higher number of potential assassins than others.

When he was rushed back to the White House from the annual Correspondents' Dinner, Trump was already in an almost routine mood. He told the assembled, glamorously dressed media that he had studied the history of assassinations. He concluded that only the most important figures, such as Abraham Lincoln, were targeted. "And I reluctantly say it's an honor, but I've done a lot," he said.

Although mass murders are a part of everyday American life - seven days ago a man killed eight children in Louisiana, in a tragedy that only briefly made headlines - the last US president to be assassinated was John F. Kennedy in 1963.

The shooting Saturday night was the third assassination attempt on Trump in less than two years. The first, in July 2024, when a bullet grazed his ear while he was speaking at a rally in Pennsylvania, boosted his reelection prospects. The Republican convention a week later was marked by a message that God had saved Trump to serve the nation.

This time, however, the outpouring of sympathy is likely to be more limited. The biggest difference is that the alleged attacker, Cole Allen, did not even come close to Trump. Although cable news channels portrayed it as another close encounter, Allen was not in the room at all. Loud gunshots were heard, but the president was in no immediate danger.

In Pennsylvania, a bloodied Trump raised his fist and shouted, "Fight, fight, fight." That image has come to define his campaign in part. Saturday night's incident at the Washington Hilton had no such moment. Ronald Reagan was shot and wounded as he was leaving the same venue in 1981. Although Reagan was at the beginning of a two-term presidency, his surge in the polls was short-lived. It would be surprising if Trump benefited at all from this.

The only surefire prediction about the increasingly unpredictable and restless American president is that he will now almost certainly build his controversial $400 million ballroom.

However, they will try to capitalize on this incident politically. It is common in Mag circles to argue that the American left is fomenting political violence by using extreme rhetoric about Trump and those around him. This narrative was then promoted by Trump himself and his vice president, J.D. Vance, after the murder of Charlie Kirk, a Mag influencer, last September. Trump then ordered American flags to be lowered to half-staff. Some Americans lost their jobs due to alleged disrespect for the slain Kirk on social media.

Trump is doing worse in the polls these days. His approval rating has fallen to an all-time low last week, below 40 percent in several polls. Most tellingly, only 30 percent of Americans approve of his handling of the economy — a serious wake-up call for Republicans ahead of the upcoming congressional elections. The growing unpopularity of Trump’s war with Iran is pushing him to a new low. Just before the Hilton incident on Saturday, Trump’s Iran negotiating team scrapped plans for a second round of talks in Islamabad after the Iranians said they would not participate.

Ironically, assassinations have also played a key role in Trump’s troubles negotiating with Iran. His “Operation Epic Fury” began with the deadly attack on Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28. Subsequent US-Israeli strikes, which killed the head of the Revolutionary Guard, Iran’s national security adviser and other leaders, have further complicated Trump’s ability to find a team of Iranian negotiators with sufficient authority. There remains confusion over who is ultimately in charge, given that the new supreme leader (the late Ayatollah’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei) is believed to be seriously wounded.

In any case, Trump’s political future is being shaped by his early zeal to assassinate senior Iranian officials, not by the latest domestic assassination attempt on him. “They can call us in any time they want,” Trump said of the Iranians on Saturday. His problem is that Iran thinks its time is on its side. Whether Trump will renew the bombing campaign in the coming days, as he recently threatened, or offer concessions to bring Iran to the negotiating table remains uncertain.

The only surefire prediction about the increasingly unpredictable and restless US president is that he will now almost certainly build his controversial $400 million ballroom in the White House. It could even host future correspondents' dinners. "Can't build it fast enough!!" he tweeted in the early hours of Sunday.

Translation: A.Š.