Trump wants to step down and still win

US intelligence agencies are considering how Iran would react if President Donald Trump declared unilateral victory in a two-month war that has killed thousands and become a political burden for the White House, two US officials and a person familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The intelligence community is analyzing the issue, along with others, at the request of senior administration officials. The goal is to understand the implications of a possible Trump withdrawal from the conflict that some officials and advisers fear could contribute to heavy Republican losses in the midterm elections later this year, the sources said.

Although no decision has been made, and Trump could easily ramp up military operations again, a quick de-escalation could ease political pressure on the president, even if it leaves behind an empowered Iran that could eventually renew its nuclear and missile programs and threaten US allies in the region.

The sources spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters.

It is not clear when the intelligence community might complete the work, but it has previously analyzed the likely reaction of Iranian leaders to the American declaration of victory.

In the days after the bombing began in February, intelligence agencies assessed that Iran would likely consider it a victory if Trump declared victory and the U.S. reduced its force presence in the region, one of the sources said.

If Trump, instead, said the US had won but maintained a strong military presence, Iran would likely see it as a negotiating tactic, but not as something that would necessarily lead to an end to the war, the source said.

"The CIA is not aware of the alleged intelligence community assessment," Liz Lyons, director of the agency's public affairs office, said in a statement.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the US was still talking to the Iranians about negotiations and would not "rush to reach a bad deal".

"The president will only agree to an agreement that puts US national security first, and he has made it clear that Iran must never possess nuclear weapons," she said.

Public opinion polls show that the war is extremely unpopular among Americans. Only 26 percent of respondents in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week said the military campaign was worth the cost, and just 25 percent said it made the United States safer.

The war in Iran has cost the United States $25 billion so far, a senior Pentagon official said yesterday, providing the first official estimate of the war's costs. Jules Hurst, the acting comptroller, told lawmakers on the House Armed Services Committee that most of that money has been spent on ammunition.

Three people familiar with recent White House discussions told Reuters that Trump is keenly aware of the political price both he and his party are paying.

Twenty days after Trump declared a ceasefire, a series of diplomatic activities have not brought the desired result in the form of a full opening of the economically crucial Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has closed by attacking ships and laying mines in the narrow waterway.

Disruption to shipping that carries about 20 percent of the world's crude oil has sent energy costs soaring worldwide, as well as fuel prices at the pump in the U.S. Iran's ability to disrupt trade gives it a powerful leverage over the United States and its allies.

The decision to reduce the US military presence in the region, while simultaneously lifting the blockade on both sides, would ultimately lead to a drop in fuel prices.

For now, however, the two sides seem far from any agreement.

Last weekend, Trump canceled a trip by his special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to meet with Iranian officials in Pakistan, telling reporters on Saturday that it would take "too much time" and that if Iran wanted talks, "all they have to do is call."

Various military options remain formally on the table, including renewed air strikes on Iranian military and political leaders, said another person familiar with the administration's dynamics.

One US official and another person familiar with the talks said, however, that the most ambitious of those options, such as a ground invasion of Iranian territory, now seem less likely than they did a few weeks ago.

A White House official described domestic pressure on the president to end the war as "enormous."

One of the sources said that Iran has taken advantage of the current ceasefire to dig up launchers, ammunition, drones and other material that had been buried by US and Israeli bombing in the first weeks of the conflict.

Therefore, the tactical costs of renewing a full-scale war are probably greater now than they were in the first days of the ceasefire, which began on April 8th.

"For now, neither side can afford to give in," Alan Eyre, an Iran expert and former US diplomat, told Reuters.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is wary of giving the impression of weakness to Washington, as President Donald Trump faces pressure ahead of midterm elections and has little room for flexibility without political cost.

"For both sides, flexibility would be seen as a weakness," Ejr said.

Iran no longer has a single, undisputed clerical arbiter at the top of power since several senior Iranian political and military figures, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were killed in US-Israeli attacks.

Although Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late ayatollah who succeeded him in the position, is formally the ultimate authority in Iran, insiders say he is a figure of approval rather than command, confirming outcomes achieved through institutional consensus rather than imposing decisions. Real power, they say, has shifted to a unified wartime leadership centered around the Supreme National Security Council.

"He is probably privy to important deals," said Iranian analyst Arash Azizi, "but I can't imagine him overruling the National Security Council. How could he go against those who are conducting war operations?"

Iran's latest offer to resolve the war, which has been suspended since April 8 under a ceasefire agreement. However, it fell short of Trump's demand that the nuclear issue be addressed at the outset.