Reuters: A standoff with Iran could leave Trump in a worse position than before the war

More than two months into a conflict that has failed to produce a decisive military or diplomatic victory, US President Donald Trump faces the risk that the standoff with Iran will continue indefinitely, leaving the US and the world facing an even bigger problem than before he started the war, Reuters reports today.

With both sides outwardly convinced that they have the upper hand and their positions still widely divergent, there is no obvious way out, even though Iran has submitted a new proposal to resume talks. Trump quickly rejected it on Friday.

For the US president and his Republican Party, the consequences of the continued stalemate are grim.

An unresolved conflict would likely mean that global economic fallout, including high gas prices in the US, would continue, putting further pressure on Trump, whose approval ratings are falling, and worsening the prospects of Republican candidates ahead of the November congressional elections.

Unfulfilled goals

These costs point to a deeper problem: the war has failed to achieve many of the goals Trump has stated.

While there is little doubt that waves of American and Israeli attacks have severely weakened Iran's military capabilities, many of Trump's often-shifting war goals — from regime change to closing Iran's path to nuclear weapons — have remained unfulfilled.

Fears of a longer-term stalemate grew after Trump canceled a trip by his negotiators to Islamabad last weekend and then rejected an Iranian offer to stop the war, suspended since April 8 under a ceasefire agreement.

Tehran has proposed that the discussion of its nuclear program be put aside until the conflict is formally ended and an agreement is reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This was unacceptable to Trump, who demands that the nuclear issue be resolved at the outset.

A glimmer of hope emerged on Friday, when the state news agency IRNA reported that Tehran had sent a revised proposal through Pakistani intermediaries, sending a slide in global oil prices that had surged since Iran effectively closed the strait. Trump told reporters he was "not satisfied" with the offer, although he added that phone calls were continuing.

Failure to wrest this crucial oil shipping lane from Iranian control once the conflict ends would be a major blow to Trump's legacy.

"He would be remembered as the American president who made the world less safe," said Laura Blumenfeld, a Middle East expert at Johns Hopkins University in Washington.

White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said Iran's "desperation" was growing due to military and economic pressure, and that Trump "holds all the cards and has all the time he needs to make the best deal."

Renewal of hostilities?

With his next steps uncertain and the ultimate goal unclear, Trump has raised the possibility of an extended naval blockade of Iran in private meetings, perhaps for months, with the aim of further cutting off its oil export revenues and forcing a denuclearization deal, a White House official said on condition of anonymity.

At the same time, he left the door open for renewed military action. US Central Command has prepared options for a "short and strong" series of strikes, as well as for taking over part of the strait to reopen it to navigation, the Axios website reported on Thursday.

European diplomats said their governments, whose relations with Trump have been strained by the war, expect the current situation with Iran to continue.

"It's hard to see how this will end soon," one of them said, speaking on condition of anonymity, Reuters reported.

Iran remained defiant.

He used powerful leverage against the US and its allies, causing an unprecedented shock in energy supplies by choking off navigation through the strait, which before the war had allowed tanker traffic to pass freely and carried a fifth of the world's oil.

Analysts say Iran will be encouraged by the knowledge that it will have these weapons at its disposal even after the war.

"Iran has realized that, even in a weakened state, it can close the Strait at will. That realization leaves Iran stronger than it was before the war," said John Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Uranium reserves remain

Trump - who came into office promising to avoid getting involved in foreign interventions - also failed to achieve his main stated goal of attacking Iran on February 28: to close its path to nuclear weapons.

The highly enriched uranium stockpile is believed to have been buried after US and Israeli air strikes last June and could be retrieved and further processed into bomb material. Iran says it wants the US to recognize its right to enrich uranium for what it says are peaceful purposes.

Wales, the White House spokeswoman, said Trump had "met or exceeded" all military objectives, including action "to ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon."

Another of Trump's declared war goals - forcing Iran to stop supporting proxy groups like Lebanon's Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthis, and the Palestinian Hamas - has also not been met.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth denied in testimony before Congress that the conflict had turned into a "quick mudslide", despite Trump initially predicting it would be over in four to six weeks.

Renewed peace talks are unlikely to bring a quick solution, given the wide differences, according to Reuters.

Although Trump has said he will accept nothing less than a long-term solution to the threat posed by Iran, he has occasionally shown signs of seeking a way out of the unpopular conflict.

At the request of Trump's aides, intelligence agencies are studying how Iran would react if he declared a unilateral victory and withdrew, US officials told Reuters.

Independent analysts say Tehran would interpret this as its own strategic success for surviving a military attack.

At the same time, European and Gulf Arab diplomats have expressed concern that Trump could end up agreeing to a flawed deal that would allow a wounded Iran to remain a threat.

The risk of a "frozen conflict"

With the talks deadlocked, some analysts have suggested the war could degenerate into a frozen conflict that would resist a lasting solution. That could prevent Trump from significantly reducing forces in the Middle East.

The US is already paying new strategic costs.

They include cracks in relations with traditional European allies, who were not consulted before Trump went to war.

He sharply criticized NATO partners for not sending their navies to help open the straits, and last week he spoke about a possible reduction in the number of troops in Germany, Spain and Italy.

Trump also has to deal with a more hardline Iranian leadership, dominated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which took control after US-Israeli strikes killed several figures, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Trump's call at the beginning of the conflict for the Iranian people to overthrow their rulers fell on deaf ears.

At home, Trump is under pressure to end a war that has plunged his approval rating to its lowest level in office — 34 percent, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll — and pushed gas prices above $4 a gallon ahead of midterm elections, in which Republicans risk losing control of Congress.

Another White House spokeswoman, Taylor Rogers, said Trump was committed to preserving his party's congressional majority and that high gas prices were only "short-term disruptions" that would be overcome as the conflict subsided.

The Iranians, however, are aware of Trump's domestic problems and may be willing to wait him out, but the question remains how long they can delay economic disaster.

"Iran is not divided or breaking, but is buying time," wrote X Sina Tusi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy think tank in Washington, online.