Trump seeks victory in Beijing

A year ago, US President Donald Trump predicted that high trade tariffs would force America's main economic rival to bow down.

He travels to China this week with that ambition weakened by court rulings, narrowing his goals to a handful of deals on soybeans, beef and Boeing planes, while seeking to enlist China's help in resolving his unpopular war with Iran, political analysts say.

Modest expectations for Trump's meetings with Xi Jinping on May 14 and 15 - the first since they paused their grueling trade war in October - show how Trump's bombastic approach has failed to give him an advantage ahead of the talks, analysts say.

Trump "needs China more in some ways than China needs him," said Alejandro Reyes, a professor who studies Chinese foreign policy at the University of Hong Kong.

"He needs some kind of foreign policy victory: a victory that shows he is trying to ensure stability in the world, not just disrupt global politics," Reyes added.

Since their last brief meeting at an air base in South Korea, where Trump suspended triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods and Xi backed down from choking off the global supply of rare earth elements, China has quietly strengthened its arsenal of economic pressure tools aimed at Washington, Reuters writes.

Trump, meanwhile, has been preoccupied with fighting US court rulings challenging his tariffs, as well as the war with Iran, which has sent his approval ratings plummeting ahead of the November congressional elections.

This week's meeting in the Chinese capital will be a more formal event, during which the leaders are expected to hold a summit in the Great Hall of the People, tour the Temple of Heaven, a UNESCO-protected site, attend a state banquet, and drink tea and have lunch together.

However, the expected economic results boil down to just a few agreements and mechanisms to manage future trade, while it remains unclear whether the leaders will even agree to extend the trade truce, officials involved in the planning said.

Trump needs some kind of foreign policy victory: a victory that shows he is seeking to ensure stability in the world, not just disrupt global politics.

Trump will be joined by CEOs of major companies, including Tesla's Elon Musk and Apple's Tim Cook, although the business delegation is smaller than during his last visit to Beijing in 2017.

In addition to trade, Trump said Monday he would discuss arms sales to Taiwan and the case of jailed media tycoon Jimmy Lai with Xi. The families of two Americans who have been imprisoned in China for more than a decade are also calling on Trump to demand their release.

"We were taken advantage of for years under our previous presidents, and now we're doing great with China," Trump said. "I have a lot of respect for him (Xia), and I hope he respects me."

One battle after another

The atmosphere has changed dramatically since Trump said in a post on the Truth Social network in April 2025 that his tariffs would make China realize that the "days of stealing" from the United States were over.

Those duties prompted Beijing to restrict exports of rare earth elements, which, according to Reuters, brutally exposed the West's dependence on elements crucial to the production of everything from electric cars to weapons - and ultimately led to a fragile truce between Trump and Xi.

Since then, Trump has faced countless other battles: capturing the leader of Venezuela, threatening to annex Greenland, a territory of another NATO member, and waging a war against Iran, which has plunged the Middle East into chaos and fueled a global energy crisis.

More than 60 percent of Americans disapprove of his war with Iran, a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last month showed.

Now Trump wants China to persuade Tehran to reach a deal with Washington to end the conflict. China maintains ties with Iran and remains a major buyer of its oil.

A majority of Americans, 53 percent, now believe the U.S. should develop friendly cooperation and dialogue with China, up from 40 percent in 2024.

Matt Pottinger, who served as deputy national security adviser during Trump's first term, said last week at a forum in Taipei that China would want an outcome that weakens American power, but that it is not immune to the economic costs of a protracted conflict.

However, Beijing will want something in return, and at the top of Xi's agenda is Taiwan, according to Reuters.

While some fear a settlement that could embolden China to seize Taiwan by force, even a nuanced change in Washington's wording would raise concerns about the commitment of Taipei's most important protector, which would resonate with other US allies in Asia, the analysis says.

Wu Xinbo, a professor at Fudan University in Shanghai and a member of the Chinese Foreign Ministry's policy advisory board, said Trump should make it clear that he "will not support independence or take any actions that encourage a separatist political agenda."

"A superficial truce"

China also wants the Trump administration to commit to not taking retaliatory trade measures in the future, such as technology export controls, and to lift existing controls on chip-making equipment and advanced memory chips, people familiar with the talks said.

And since last October, Beijing has been expanding its economic leverage, including by passing laws to punish foreign entities that move supply chains outside of China and tightening the licensing regime for rare earth elements.

A majority of Americans, 53 percent, now believe the United States should develop friendly cooperation and dialogue with China, up from 40 percent in 2024, according to a survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs released in October.

Therefore, as Reuters estimates, simply maintaining stable relations and extending the truce in the trade war could be enough for Trump to declare victory.

That means the main outcome is likely to be "a superficial truce that is largely in China's favor," said Scott Kennedy of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.