Trump: Cuba is a failed country and only going down; Will there be a US invasion?

US President Donald Trump said yesterday that Cuba is seeking help from the United States (US) and will begin talks with the government in Havana.

"Cuba is a failed country and is only going one way: Down! Cuba is asking for help, and we will talk!!! In the meantime, I'm going to China!" Trump wrote in a post on his social media account, Truth Social.

China, where Trump is traveling this week to meet with President Xi Jinping, had previously called on Washington to immediately lift the embargo and sanctions against Cuba.

Trump has repeatedly threatened Cuba, even after the capture and deportation to the US of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro earlier this year, saying that "Cuba is next."

The US tightened sanctions against Cuba, imposed an oil blockade and took other measures to weaken its communist government.

The news website Axios writes that Trump's increasing pressure on the Cuban government is heightening concerns that his constant threats to invade the Caribbean island nation could come true.

A US invasion of Cuba would be the most dramatic confrontation between Washington and Havana since the 1962 missile crisis and the boldest test yet of Trump's campaign to expand American influence in the Western Hemisphere in accordance with his version of the Monroe Doctrine, the website says.

The number of US surveillance and reconnaissance flights off the coast of Cuba has increased since February, according to a review of such flights published by CNN this week.

The US imposed additional sanctions on Havana last Thursday, prompting its foreign minister to describe them as "collective punishment of a genocidal nature."

Cuba is facing a worsening humanitarian crisis, which its officials blame on a US "energy blockade" that is preventing oil suppliers from supplying the island.

In addition, the arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro further worsened the situation in Cuba by cutting it off from this key oil supplier.

However, Axios writes, there are no signs that Trump will target Cuba.

The website states that Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva told reporters last Thursday that Trump told him privately during a meeting at the White House that he had no intention of invading Cuba.

But, Axios reports, Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in a military operation in Cuba, suggesting on Friday that an aircraft carrier returning to the US from Iran could be stationed near the Cuban coast.

He said the carrier "could come, stop about 100 meters from the shore, and they'd say, 'Thank you very much. We're giving up!' ".

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, told reporters last Sunday that the country's economic system is not working and cannot be fixed.

"The reason they can't fix it isn't just because they're communists. That's bad enough," he said of the country's ruling party, continuing: "They're incompetent communists. The only thing worse than a communist is an incompetent communist."

A White House official told Axios on Monday that "Cuba is a failing country, which has been terribly mismanaged for many years, and whose rulers have suffered a major blow by losing the support of Venezuela."

He added: "As the President (Trump) has stated, Cuba is a failing country. In a short period of time they will fall, and we will be there to help them."

A State Department spokesperson told Axios that "the Cuban regime continues to demonstrate indifference to the suffering of its people and refuses to reform or at least allow the delivery of vital humanitarian assistance."

"President Trump would prefer a diplomatic solution, but he and his administration will not allow the island to be degraded into an even more serious security threat to the national security of the United States," he said.

Sebastian Arcos, interim director of the Institute for Cuban Studies at Florida International University, told Axios that he believes intervention was possible shortly after Trump declared Cuba an imminent threat to US security in January, but then the war in Iran shifted military resources to the Middle East.

"Everything has been put on the back burner. Now that we see the war in Iran kind of in limbo... I see a kind of refocus on Cuba, not only in the (surveillance) flights, but also in the statements by President Marco Rubio and the sanctions that have just been announced," he said.

Arkos added that he does not believe Trump will send forces to Cuba, but that he could carry out "a long-range military action," similar to what happened in Iran, that would "shock the regime, break the leadership and perhaps create an opportunity for the rise of a new leadership."

Arkos noted that Cuba's Independence Day, which marks the end of the US occupation of the island, is on May 20th and something could happen then, adding: "There is certainly a sense of expectation and tension both in Cuba and in Miami" where Cuban refugees mostly live.