India: Modi's allies want bigger families as fertility rates fall

Although India is the world's most populous country, with 1,42 billion people and problems such as high youth unemployment, influential allies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi are increasingly vocal in advocating for larger families, warning of a decline in fertility rates, Reuters reports.

Although the United Nations predicts that India's population will continue to grow for about four decades, peaking at about 1,7 billion, some policymakers and Hindu groups say the shift away from smaller families needs to start now, including through state financial support.

The country's total fertility rate, or the average number of children per woman, has fallen to two in the government's 2019/21 estimate, from 3,4 in 1992/93, due to increased contraceptive use and women's education. The government estimates that a rate of 2,1 is needed to replace the population.

The southern state of Andhra Pradesh, ruled by a coalition of a regional party and Modi's party, said over the weekend it would offer a one-time cash grant of 30.000 rupees (about 300 euros) for a third child and 40.000 rupees for a fourth, changing an earlier proposal of 25.000 rupees for a second child and no direct support for the firstborn. It did not say when the plan would be implemented.

Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu said that the declining birth rate in many countries is leading to an ageing population and economic burden.

"In the past, we have worked intensively on family planning," he said. "Now, given the changed circumstances, we urge that children be viewed as an asset."

The small northeastern state of Sikkim has also urged families to have more children, offering incentives such as a year's maternity leave, a month's paternity leave and financial support for in vitro fertilization, according to Reuters.

The United Nations states that in the mid-1980s, China, Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Turkey considered their birth rates too high and tried to reduce them, only to change course by 2015 and begin promoting policies to increase the number of births.

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the powerful Hindu organization from which Modi's party originated, has also called for larger families, describing it as a priority.

“We say India is a country of youth... but the total fertility rate is slowly declining,” the organization’s secretary-general, Datatreya Hosabale, told reporters last week. “Demographic imbalances will create tensions.”

India's overall unemployment rate for people over 15 was 3,1 percent in 2025, government data shows, but among young people aged 15 to 29 it was significantly higher — 9,9 percent, including 13,6 percent in urban areas and 8,3 percent in rural regions.