Trump's gift to Beijing at the expense of Taiwan

By presenting the sale of US weapons to Taiwan as a trump card in negotiations with China, US President Donald Trump has practically given Chinese leader Xi Jinping a gift in his efforts to undermine the Taiwanese government, the New York Times reports.

Chinese state media used Trump's comments yesterday to send a message to the domestic public and to Taiwan: that the US cannot be counted on to defend Taiwan, an island that Beijing considers its territory.

Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te, who is often the target of harsh attacks from Beijing, and his Democratic Progressive Party can no longer count on "unconditional appeasement" from the US, the Chinese newspaper "Global Times" reported.

"Security cannot be bought by purchasing weapons. If you become a pawn, you will only be squeezed to the limit," Colonel Jiang Bin, a spokesman for China's Ministry of National Defense, said yesterday, referring to Taiwan.

Trump's comments came over the weekend after he wrapped up a summit with Xi in Beijing on Friday. He said he was holding off on a decision on a $14 billion arms deal for Taiwan for now, describing it as a "very good bargaining chip" that could be used in relations with Beijing.

"I'm putting it on hold and it's up to China," he said in an interview with Fox News. It was not immediately clear what Trump wants China to do in return.

The US went to the summit hoping to persuade China to do more to get Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump later said he had discussed Iran with Xi, but details of those discussions were not made public.

China has been pressuring Iran to negotiate with the US and has called for the Strait of Hormuz to be opened.

However, according to the New York Times, Beijing has strong strategic reasons to avoid explicitly aligning itself with the US and Israel against Iran, its partner in the Middle East, in a war that it has repeatedly said should not have happened.

Bao Chengke, a researcher at the Shanghai Association for the Study of Cross-Strait Relations, says that even if China were willing to use its influence over Tehran, it would not want it to be interpreted as an open exchange for American concessions over Taiwan.

“He tends to act like a businessman, to look at issues through the lens of deal-making,” Bao said of Trump. “But linking the two issues so tightly is really not feasible.”

If Trump were to suspend the $14 billion package or reduce the quantity and sophistication of the weapons, China could respond in several ways, said Xin Qiang, director of the Center for Taiwan Studies at Fudan University.

For example, China could buy more American agricultural products and Boeing aircraft, Professor Sin said.

Trump and Boeing have already announced that China has agreed to order 200 of the company's planes. The Trump administration also announced on Sunday that China has agreed to buy at least $17 billion in U.S. agricultural products annually in 2026, 2027 and 2028, with the amount for this year being prorated over the remaining period.

Beijing has strong strategic reasons to avoid explicitly aligning itself with the US and Israel against Iran.

Beijing's official position is that Taiwan is China's internal matter and that any continued US arms sales to the island are unacceptable. But Beijing can also be pragmatic, said Xin.

“China has never wanted to treat arms sales to Taiwan as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the United States,” he said. “But, realistically, any issue can essentially become a bargaining chip in international relations or great power competition.”

The Times points out that Beijing has, in a way, already benefited from Trump's maneuver.

Trump's statements suggest that he has partially accepted China's portrayal of Lai as a dangerous separatist trying to drag the United States into war, the newspaper said. Lai and his government argue that Taiwan is in reality already independent and that Beijing is behaving aggressively.

Trump also questioned whether the US could successfully come to Taiwan's defense in the event of war. "I don't want someone to go down the path of independence and then, you know, have us travel 9.500 miles to fight a war," he said.

The ambiguity surrounding Trump's comments about "independence," which the White House has not further clarified, has sparked debate in Taiwan about whether he was sending a message that he was actively opposing a formal declaration of independence, according to Reuters.

The Taiwanese government has not announced plans to declare a new state separate from the Republic of China, which is Taiwan's formal name. Lai reiterated on Sunday that the Republic of China is already an independent state that does not belong to Beijing and that "there is no so-called Taiwan independence issue."

“The correct interpretation should be: Trump does not want any side to take a unilateral move that would force the US to get involved in the conflict,” said Tsai Yung-hsiang, a professor at Taiwan’s National Chung Cheng University.

Minxin Pei, a professor at Claremont Makena College who studies Chinese leadership politics, said: “I think Xi Jinping believes he succeeded in one respect at this summit - in educating Trump about Taiwan.”

“In the eyes of the Chinese, Trump’s comments on the Taiwan issue represent a huge breakthrough,” said Wang Wen, a former Chinese journalist in Beijing who is now a professor at Renmin University in Beijing.

Some analysts have assessed that Beijing could gain a certain advantage simply by delaying any approval long enough.

“The question is whether the pending $14 billion sale will be delayed for weeks, months or longer,” said Craig Singleton, senior director of the China Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington. “A prolonged delay, especially if it were the result of opposition from Beijing, would raise much more serious questions about the reliability of American deterrence.”

Taiwan's main opposition party, the Nationalist Party, which advocates closer ties with China, used the moment to argue that President Lai had put the island in a dangerous position - Beijing did not trust him and Washington could not be relied on.

“I believe the Trump-Xi summit is a turning point for Taiwan,” said Suu Kyi, a former senior official who served in Nationalist Party administrations. “Our big brother, America — I’m sorry — has too many problems right now and simply can’t take care of us here.”

Lai and his officials argue that Trump’s comments do not change relations. They point to parts of Trump’s statements, including the claim that “nothing has changed” in Taiwan policy. They also point to statements by Trump administration officials, including U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer, that Taiwan policy remains unchanged.

“I don’t think the Taiwanese public has any reason to worry,” Chen Ming-chi, Taiwan’s deputy foreign minister, told reporters. “I believe that the US’s security obligations to us and our bilateral economic and trade relations are maintained as before.”

Taiwan would welcome direct talks between Trump and Lai

After the summit with Xi, the US president also hinted that he might talk to the president of Taiwan.

Chen also said yesterday that Taiwan would welcome a direct phone call between Trump and Lai, if the US president had indeed suggested he was ready for such contact, Reuters reported. Such a conversation would carry particular weight, as the current US president and the Taiwanese leader have not spoken directly since 1979, when the US switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing.

"Of course, we would also ask: does this mean, based on what you said, that you want to talk to our president? If he says yes, then should we make appropriate preparations? We very much hope for such an opportunity," Chen added.

A State Department spokesman said that, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “our policy toward Taiwan remains unchanged.” He did not elaborate.

Washington is traditionally Taiwan's most important international ally and major arms supplier, and is obligated under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act to provide the island with the means to defend itself. Chen said he could not comment on pending arms purchases, but added that such sales create jobs in the United States.

“Our defense needs are urgent,” he added. “So I think, in the context of the threat from China, we need these assets as soon as possible.”