Trump is looking more and more like Carter

It is hard to imagine two people, let alone two American presidents, less alike than Donald Trump and Jimmy Carter. One was the epitome of modesty in public service; the other is Trump. But they have one thing in common: Iran. Carter's term was marred by the Iran hostage crisis - a disaster from which he never recovered. Operation Epic Fury is a trap Trump has recklessly walked into. Iran's theocrats are now shaping his presidency.

Both share a distaste for American soldiers returning home in coffins. Carter was plagued by guilt after losing eight Americans in a botched hostage rescue attempt. Trump has lost 13 American soldiers in the Gulf so far. He fears a public backlash over new American casualties.

"There were times in the very beginning when we thought about it," Trump said last week, when asked if he planned to seize Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium. "I didn't want to be Jimmy Carter."

Yet that is exactly what Trump is becoming. Once the notion is established that the American president is a hostage to the decisions of others, it is difficult to shake off the impression of powerlessness. It invites danger. Carter’s failure to free the hostages influenced the Soviet Union’s decision to invade Afghanistan a few weeks after the seizure of the American embassy in Tehran. Were it not for the actions of Pope John Paul II and Carter’s national security adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, the Soviets would likely have invaded Poland.

Trump is the hostage at the center of today's Middle Eastern maze. This weekend, the president told me, "I call the shots. I make all the decisions." That seems suspicious.

Although he urged Israel not to retaliate against Iranian missile strikes on Sunday, Israel did so anyway. Hours later, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered an attack on Iran. Trump may have tacitly approved Israel’s response. But the almost universal perception that he is unable to control Netanyahu could be fatal to his chances of ending this war. Iran will not make any major concessions to a president who cannot control Israel’s response.

Trump is also a hostage to the Iranian mindset. As a precondition for negotiations, Iran insists on a complete ceasefire in Lebanon. Every time Israel strikes targets in Lebanon, including in response to Hezbollah rocket attacks, Trump’s bar for reaching an agreement is raised. The fact that Hezbollah has not agreed to any ceasefires reinforces this impression. Iran itself is undermining any chance for peace in Lebanon. This only further underscores Trump’s impotence; Iran and Israel are now determining the direction and duration of this war.

How can he escape this nightmare? By doing three things he will hate to do. The first would be to demonstrate his veto power over Israeli moves, by threatening to cut off American military aid unless Israel abides by the ceasefire and withdraws from all but a narrow strip of Lebanon. The second would be to assemble a team of experts as willing as Iranian negotiators to haggle over the details for as long as necessary. The third would be to consistently signal that he will stay on those two tracks. But he lacks patience. Character twists are rare in people approaching eighty.

But the almost universal perception that he is unable to control Netanyahu could be fatal to his chances of ending this war. Iran will not make any major concessions to a president who cannot control Israel's response.

So he is left with moves to make up for the loss of control. This is where Trump diverges from Carter. The thirty-ninth president of the United States has turned the hostage crisis into a measure of his own power. He has embraced the "Rose Garden Strategy," refusing to campaign for reelection - and even leaving the National Christmas Tree outside the White House unlit. In doing so, he has ceded control of the narrative to the Iranians. Trump has also lost control of the plot. But he is a showman, not a preacher, and his instinct is to change the story. That means moves in areas where he can win.

The crux of Trump’s national security strategy, released last December, was to reassert American dominance in the Western Hemisphere. The word Iran is mentioned three times, but only to boast that last summer’s ceasefire between Israel and Iran was one of eight supposed peace agreements Trump negotiated. The document was released shortly after the Nobel Peace Prize was announced. The winner, María Corina Machado, a Venezuelan opposition leader, dedicated her prize to Trump, who had campaigned shamelessly for it. Although Trump now controls the Venezuelan regime, Machado has yet to see any benefit from her gesture.

This is where Trump and Carter enter parallel worlds. Carter rejected the Monroe Doctrine, on which America based its early hemispheric dominance. Trump has revived it. Cuba should be on its guard. Canada can never sleep peacefully. Denmark should be aware that Greenland is still in Trump's crosshairs. Carter won the Nobel Peace Prize in part for brokering peace between Israel and Egypt. Trump has shown that he is in no position to mediate anywhere outside his own backyard.

Translation: A. Š.