The El Niño climate phenomenon, which affects weather patterns around the world, has formed in the warming Pacific Ocean and is expected to grow to its strongest ever recorded, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced today.
Experts expect extreme weather events across the planet.
Even before it was officially confirmed, this El Niño had been given a series of nicknames - from "Super El Niño" to "Godzilla".
Meteorologists predict that this El Niño will be equal to or stronger than the record-breaking El Niño that began in 1997 and caused billions of dollars in damage - the result of heat waves, floods, droughts, tornadoes and fires.
NOAA says there is a 63 percent chance that El Niño will become so strong in late fall and early winter that it will rank "among the largest El Niño events since 1950."
The warm deep waters of El Niño affect weather patterns by bringing "a lot of extra heat to the surface, which fuels a number of extreme events around the world," said Abby Fraser, a climatologist at Clark University.
She expects it to be very difficult, especially in the Pacific region.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres says El Niño requires an urgent climate warning because it is "adding fuel to the fire of an already warming world."
The effects on weather vary by region: El Niño often reduces, but does not eliminate, seasonal hurricane activity in the Atlantic, but increases it in the Pacific. So the U.S. East Coast and Gulf of Mexico can fare well while Hawaii and other islands are at risk, Fraser said.
The drought-stricken Middle East could fare well with El Niño, scientists said, while other parts of the world can expect more danger.
Parts of western South America, where the first El Niño events were observed decades ago, often experience heavy rain and flooding when it occurs, along with exceptionally hot summers.
India is expected to experience more intense heat waves, while drought, fires and heat will threaten Australia.
North Africa is likely to experience effects ranging from severe droughts to dangerously heavy rains, said Columbia University climate scientist Muhamad Azhar Ehsan, an expert on El Niño.
In the US, the occurrence of El Niño could cause more intense storms with heavier rainfall in the south, but it could be mostly favorable for agriculture, said John Gottschalk, head of the Climate Prediction Center at the US agency NOAA.
Overall, it is possible that El Niño will bring a reduction in US economic growth, said Stanford climate economist Marshall Burke.
El Niño usually forms in the summer, peaks in late fall or early winter, and slowly fades the following spring, but strong El Niños, like this one, tend to last longer, and several scientists have already predicted that 2027 will be the warmest year ever recorded.
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