Hezbollah plays a central role in Iranian foreign policy. Despite the growing risks, the militia remains crucial to Tehran's influence in the Middle East and in its confrontation with Israel.
The situation in the Middle East is escalating. Despite a fragile ceasefire between Iran on the one hand, and Israel and the United States of America (USA) on the other, incidents, mutual attacks and threats continue to occur.
On Tuesday night, a military confrontation broke out between Tehran and Washington after a US military helicopter was shot down. Following rocket attacks by the Shiite Hezbollah and its Iranian allies on northern Israel, the Israeli military struck targets in the suburbs of Beirut over the weekend. Shortly after, Tehran responded with rocket attacks on Israeli territory. Israel then retaliated with strikes on targets in Iran.
The latest escalation threatens to derail efforts to reach a deal with Iran, which US President Donald Trump is seeking to achieve to end the conflict in the region.
Iran's regional strategy under pressure
"From the Iranian perspective, there is one key priority right now: to take Hezbollah into account in possible political agreements and peace talks," says Middle East expert Arman Mahmudian of the University of South Florida. Any agreement involves mutual concessions.
For Tehran, however, it is crucial that Hezbollah does not become a subject of negotiations. For Iran, this is not just about Hezbollah, but about the country's overall regional influence.
"If Hezbollah continues to be exposed to Israeli attacks, while at the same time being perceived as being abandoned by Tehran, this could have serious consequences for Iran and undermine the confidence of other Iran-aligned actors in the region – such as the Houthis in Yemen or Shiite militias in Iraq. Hezbollah, after all, entered this conflict primarily out of loyalty to Iran and attacked Israel after the assassination of Khamenei."
Following the outbreak of war with Iran on February 28 and the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Lebanese militia Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel, thus siding with Tehran in the war.
Israel responded by bombing the southern suburbs of Beirut and other parts of its northern neighbor. As a result, the war spread to Lebanon.
Hezbollah as a multi-purpose organization
The Shiite Hezbollah emerged in the early 1980s during the Lebanese civil war and after the Israeli invasion of the country. Lebanon is home to Sunnis (about 32 percent of the population), Shiites (about 31 percent), as well as numerous Christian, Druze, and Alawite communities.
Shiite Iran played a key role in the founding of Hezbollah after the 1979 Islamic Revolution and continues to support the organization financially, militarily and ideologically. The movement has its own military wing, but is also represented as a political party in the Lebanese parliament and runs numerous social institutions.
Germany, the US and many other countries consider Hezbollah, in whole or in part, to be a terrorist organization. Its activities have been banned in Germany since 2020.
At the same time, Hezbollah is now considered significantly weakened. Israeli military strikes in recent years have seriously damaged its military capabilities and command structure. However, despite heavy losses, the organization has managed to at least partially rebuild its structures, similar to what it did after the 2006 Lebanon War.
The rising cost of the conflict with Israel
Hezbollah has been a key pillar of Iran's regional strategy for decades. Iranian expert Arash Azizi describes this logic as "forward defense." According to this strategy, Iran tries to keep potential threats as far away from its territory as possible, using allied actors to deter adversaries.
However, that strategy has partially reversed. Today, Iran is increasingly forced to actively protect its allies, which includes both direct attacks on Israel and accepting Israeli counterattacks on Iranian territory and infrastructure.
The new Iranian government is increasingly trying to justify its support for Hezbollah with national security interests, and less with ideological arguments, emphasizes Arash Azizi. "However, the fact remains that Iran, as a state that sees itself in conflict with Israel, cannot simply abandon its regional allies."
At the same time, the cost of further conflict with Israel for Iran is very high. The economic damage caused by the war is enormous, the living conditions of many citizens have deteriorated, and the economic prospects remain uncertain.
"The new government in Iran will therefore not only have to address security and foreign policy challenges, but will also have to answer the question of what kind of future it can offer its population."
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