Trump's power slips away on the eve of his 80th birthday

US President Donald Trump is trying to show political strength ahead of his 80th birthday, but setbacks at home and abroad are exposing the limits of his power and pushing him toward the status of a politically weakened president at the end of his term - precisely what he has told aides he is determined to avoid.

Nearly 17 months into his second term, the courts are resisting him, his push to end the war with Iran has stalled and his approval ratings have plummeted. He is also being defied by some Republican allies in Congress - though his support among his most loyal supporters remains strong, Reuters reports.

Still, Trump has shown he still has considerable influence: he has helped defeat incumbent Republican candidates in party primaries and has continued to push for aggressive trade policies. He has also launched high-profile construction projects in Washington, in one of the most ambitious building campaigns by a US president in recent years.

Trump, the oldest president to be sworn in, will celebrate his 80th birthday tomorrow by hosting a UFC fight on the White House lawn.

This dynamic is unfolding just months before the November congressional elections, as Trump's Republican Party struggles to retain control of Congress. Reuters points out that losing one or both chambers to opposition Democrats could accelerate his entry into the phase of a politically weakened president at the end of his term - a period in which, historically, a president who is barred from running for re-election loses influence and domestic priorities are blocked.

The White House is trying to prevent that narrative from taking hold too soon and is firmly sending a message to Republican lawmakers that Trump can still decide their political fate, a presidential adviser told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive internal matters.

However, as some Republicans are already showing a greater willingness to oppose Trump, the adviser acknowledged that it is inevitable that his authority will begin to weaken.

"Naturally, he will start to lose leverage, especially after the congressional elections," the advisor said.

Trump has privately told aides that one of the reasons he mentioned a third term, which the Constitution prohibits, was to prevent the public perception that he could become a politically weakened president at the end of his term and slide into "irrelevance," said a former senior aide who spoke on condition of anonymity.

White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said: "President Trump is the undisputed leader of the Republican Party, committed to preserving the Republican majority in Congress."

Questions about Trump's political position are being raised at a time when scrutiny of his personal stamina is intensifying.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in February found that 61 percent of Americans believe Trump has become more unpredictable over the years, while another survey in April found that a majority expressed concerns about his temperament and mental acuity.

Trump, the oldest president to be sworn in, will celebrate his 80th birthday tomorrow by hosting a UFC cage fight on the White House lawn.

After a flurry of nearly weekly travel at the start of the year, Trump has largely stayed at the White House or his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida since he declared war on Iran on Feb. 28. He has made only a handful of domestic trips since then.

His public daily schedule consists mostly of “executive time” and closed-door policy meetings. He is often more visible on his Truth Social platform, where he posts throughout the day and late into the night.

Trump said he was in excellent health after a routine checkup last month, after being seen at public events with swollen ankles, which his doctors described as only a "mild" problem, as well as bruises on his hands.

A senior White House official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, said Trump wants to avoid comparisons with Joe Biden, his Democratic predecessor, who faced questions about his fitness to do the job before leaving office at age 83.

Still, Trump has occasionally been filmed appearing to be dozing off at events, including the NBA Finals at Madison Square Garden on Monday. After footage of him with his eyes closed went viral, Trump aides have hit back on social media, claiming he was blinking or listening intently.

White House spokesman Davis Ingle described Trump as "the most insightful and accessible president in American history."

Trump wants to avoid comparisons with Joe Biden, who faced questions about his fitness to do the job before leaving office at age 83.

Analysts agree that, even if Trump's political influence wanes, he can still rely on executive orders to shape policy and act more freely on the world stage, where presidents have more room to maneuver for unilateral action.

However, as Reuters notes in its analysis, there are signs that Trump's position is weakening.

While he is unlikely to face a full-scale Republican rebellion, some defeated incumbents, who remain in office until January, have already begun to oppose parts of his agenda and have signaled resistance to his cabinet nominations.

In the past two weeks, smaller Republican factions in the Senate and House of Representatives have joined Democrats in rebuking him for war with Iran, rejecting $1 billion in funding linked to his ballroom, and forcing the withdrawal of his $1,8 billion fund intended for payments to political allies who claim they were victims of “instrumentalized” criminal prosecutions.

As Trump has struggled to achieve his political goals, he has become increasingly preoccupied with his construction projects. He increasingly highlights not only the lavish ballroom under construction, but also the renovation of the Reflecting Pool on the National Mall and the proposed Arch of Triumph.

One way Trump is likely to continue to exert influence is in the selection of the Republican presidential nominee for 2028, which is seen as a contest between Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

And by the end of Trump's term, the world should expect the unexpected from a president who prides himself on his unpredictability, said Douglas Brinkley, a historian of the American presidency at Rice University.

“His chaotic leadership style is going nowhere, regardless of whether the Democrats take over Congress or not,” he said.