Independent voters in the US who helped Donald Trump become president again are increasingly dissatisfied with him, especially those who are not highly educated, according to a new AP-NORC poll released today.
Americans without college degrees have long been a key part of Trump's support. But he won in 2024 by attracting groups that tend to support the now-opposition Democrats, including Hispanic adults.
More Americans than ever before consider themselves independents, and they are among the groups that have edged closer to Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Any erosion of that support could signal trouble for Trump and Republicans ahead of the fall's general elections, which are often seen as a reflection of how voters feel about their ruling party.
The analysis shows that about half of independent voters who do not consider themselves affiliated with any party and who do not have a college degree had a favorable opinion of Trump at the time of the 2024 election, while this spring only a quarter of that group approves of his performance. That shift has erased the large education gap that existed among independent voters before Trump took office for his second term, with all independents now holding similarly negative views of the president, regardless of education level.
The analysis was conducted by combining nearly two dozen AP-NORC polls conducted between July 2024 and April 2026, which provides a deeper look at how support for Trump has changed, including since the start of the Iran war.
Trump's reputation has also declined among several small but important groups that have moved closer to him in the 2024 presidential election, including black and Hispanic independent voters.
Tafari Torres, a senior research fellow at NORC who co-authored the analysis, noted that while Democrats and Republicans' views of Trump have largely remained stable in his second term, independents' opinions continue to shift as they largely react to events, and are now reducing their support.
Trump's return to the White House was fueled in part by independent voters who saw him as a stronger candidate on key issues like the economy. A new analysis shows that since he took the lead, their views have rapidly deteriorated.
Independent voters without a college degree held a much more positive view of Trump than college-educated independents during and immediately after the 2024 election, but that changed in the first few months of his term. Positive views of Trump among independents without a college degree fell from 48% in the months before he returned to office to 31% in polls conducted during Trump’s first 100 days in office. Those views fell even further, to about a quarter, during the government shutdown late last year and the first months of 2026.
Only about 30% of college-educated independent voters, by contrast, had a favorable opinion of Trump before he returned to office, making the current decline in Trump support among them to about one-quarter much less dramatic.
42% of independent voters voted for Trump in 2024, compared to 37% of that group in the 2020 presidential election. Independent voters without a college degree were slightly more likely to support Trump than former Vice President Kamala Harris in the last election, and Hispanic independents were roughly evenly split between the two.
The picture now looks much darker for the president.
Nearly half of Hispanic independents – 46% – viewed Trump favorably in polls conducted around the time of the presidential election. His approval among them declined rapidly during his second term, falling to as low as 15% during the fall government shutdown and falling to about a quarter in the spring.
Younger independents have also become less supportive of the president, while independents over 60 have remained largely stable. Other AP-NORC polls show Trump losing ground among younger Republicans due to concerns about inflation, and Hispanics are also increasingly dissatisfied.
Polls suggest that the economy is at the root of many Americans' frustration with Trump.
About half of independents who supported Trump in 2024 said inflation was the most important factor in their vote, AP VoteCast found, and most expressed high levels of concern about the cost of food and fuel.
More than a year into Trump's second term, inflation remains high, fueled by rising fuel prices as the war in Iran continues. An AP-NORC poll conducted in April found that about 30% of independents were "extremely" or "very" worried about being able to pay for basic necessities over the past few months, and a similar share were worried about being able to buy gas.
The analysis found that Americans' views of the domestic economy largely align with their views of the president. Those with negative views of the U.S. economy tended to have negative views of Trump, and about 80% of independents described the U.S. economy as bad this spring.
The latest AP-NORC poll from May found that only about 30% of independent voters approve of Trump's handling of the economy, similar to the level at the start of his second term. A poll in April found that only about 12% of independent voters approve of Trump's handling of the prices of everyday goods and services.
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