A victory that Iranians don't feel

When Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced a temporary agreement to end the war with the United States this week, he declared his country a winner. To many Iranians, however, it doesn't seem that way.

More than three months of US and Israeli air strikes, as well as a blockade of Iranian ports, have brought new suffering to a people who have been suffering under the burden of sanctions for years, writes Reuters.

Although the war is over - for now - Iranians are still keeping a close eye on the costs. Among both supporters and opponents of the Islamic Republic, few believe things will get better soon.

Some believe that economic discontent could spark new waves of protests against the government. Others expect new repression, similar to the bloody suppression of the last wave of mass demonstrations in January.

And with any more permanent agreement shelved for further negotiations, there is little certainty among them that a deal aimed at ending the war will survive the summer.

"I think 99 percent of people are in survival mode, living from today to tomorrow. I don't think anyone has any hope anymore. I don't think anyone has any idea what the future might be like," said Amir, 34, the owner of a media production company in Isfahan, central Iran.

Reuters contacted the Iranians via a messaging app so they could speak freely, but Amir and others did not want to be fully identified for fear of angering authorities. Some of the other people interviewed on camera in Tehran did give their full names.

"Day by day, the people's situation, their existence, was getting worse, not better. Ask anyone now: who could say 'I am satisfied'?" said Mehdi Sabahi, speaking to the camera near a huge portrait mourning the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the war.

The Islamic Republic is not going anywhere anytime soon. If it was deeply entrenched before, it is now ten times more entrenched. Any hope of reform or change of any kind has virtually disappeared.

That gloomy view is not shared by die-hard supporters of the Islamic Republic's ruling system, who present the war as a victory and the Iranian nation as defiant and united, although some of them say Iran should have sought better terms.

"It's not that we are particularly satisfied with this document we received. Our people want more than this and we must be aware that this is the public mood," said Said Ajorlu, executive director of the daily "Sobh-e No."

“Do not think that our people are tired, that we are weak and ready to surrender. No, our attitude is victorious.”

A cafe owner in Tehran, who described himself as neither a supporter nor an opponent of Iran's theocratic ruling system, said he believes both Israel and US President Donald Trump will want to bomb Iran again.

"This agreement that's being finalized doesn't seem particularly interesting to me. It doesn't look like something that's going to last long," he said via the messaging app.

Like most people Reuters spoke to, he felt the decline in living standards keenly, describing how people are cutting back on spending with an increasingly common Persian expression: “We are used to our tables being smaller.”

“Everything has become worse and much more expensive,” said a 25-year-old student from Tehran, adding that she and her friends can no longer afford to even meet in cafes.

Fear of a new wave of repression

Reuters writes that concerns about the new government repression are particularly pronounced in regions inhabited by Iran's ethnic minorities, where the suppression of previous waves of protests has often been the deadliest.

Three men living in Kurdistan, in western Iran, said the war had not only further impoverished them, but had also led to greater repression or insecurity.

“Leaving the regime in this state only strengthens repressive institutions,” said one of the interlocutors, who is 40 years old.

He believes that the bloodshed of January will discourage new protests for a while, but that economic hardship will soon lead to the outbreak of demonstrations again.

Rumors from the beginning of the war that the US would try to incite an armed Kurdish rebellion against the Islamic Republic further worsened the situation in the region, said another interviewee, a 25-year-old student.

“The war has brought nothing but new problems to the Kurds,” he said.

People outside ethnic minority areas also said the conflict could undermine prospects for greater political freedoms.

Iran's ruling establishment has sought to dominate the streets since the beginning of the war, flooding city centers and towns with supporters who organize rallies or memorial services for fallen leaders.

Amir, the owner of a media company from Isfahan, said their presence is a constant reminder of how much the state interferes in daily life.

"The Islamic Republic is not going anywhere anytime soon. If it was deeply entrenched before, it is now ten times more entrenched. Any hope of reform or any change has practically disappeared," he said.