New IMF estimates: Due to the war in Iran, global economic growth will be three percent, a drop compared to the plan

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global economic growth forecast for this year due to the war in Iran, while the consequences of that conflict and the energy crisis are being partially mitigated by the development of artificial intelligence (AI) and other technologies.

The IMF announced yesterday that it expects the global economy to grow by three percent in 2026, down from 3,5 percent last year and the 3,1 percent estimated in April.

The conflict between Iran, the United States (US) and Israel over the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil passes, is expected to push fuel prices up by almost 32 percent, and global consumer prices as a whole are expected to rise by 4,7 percent in 2026.

That would represent growth from 4,1 percent in 2025 and mean that two years of progress in fighting inflation has stalled.

IMF forecasts assume that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen later this month, even though US attacks on Iran have continued, and that trade will return to normal by March next year.

The IMF expects the US economy, the world's largest, to grow at a solid 2,3 percent this year, up from 2,1 percent in 2025 and unchanged from its April forecast.

The 21 European countries that use the euro, which are hit by higher energy prices, are forecast to have a combined economic growth of 0,9 percent this year, down from 1,4 percent in 2025.

China, the world's second-largest economy, is expected to grow by 4,6 percent this year - down from five percent in 2025, but still slightly faster than the IMF had forecast in April.

India will once again be the fastest growing economy in the world, with a growth rate of 6,4 percent, the IMF estimates.