After Hormuz, Iran threatens the Red Sea

After blocking maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is now signaling that it could play its most dangerous card yet: using its Houthi allies in Yemen to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait to the Red Sea, opening a new front against Washington and threatening two of the world's most important energy arteries.

As US strikes push deeper into Iranian territory and Houthi attacks escalate, analysts say Tehran is widening the conflict and seeking to ratchet up pressure on Washington, expanding the threat to global trade and energy supplies beyond the Persian Gulf.

Iran has already demonstrated the power of its most valuable strategic asset by disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Now it appears to be preparing to open a second pressure point at Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow waterway connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and through which Saudi oil exports and a significant portion of the world's maritime traffic pass.

A senior Yemeni official warned on Monday that the country's armed forces are ready to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which he said could push oil prices to $200 per barrel if Saudi Arabia continues to attack Yemen, the Iranian Press TV website reported.

Mohamed al-Farah, a member of the political bureau of Ansar Allah, the Houthi resistance movement, said that Washington was encouraging Saudi Arabia to attack Yemen and that such a provocation would never be in the interests of the United States.

"If the current situation worsens, the Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz straits will be closed as part of the operational alliance. Oil prices would then jump to $200 per barrel in a terrifying shock," he warned.

If Hormuz is Tehran's strongest strategic lever, Bab el Mandeb could be its last major reserve, analysts say.

“Iran is ready to go all the way,” Middle East expert Fawaz Gerges told Reuters. He said Tehran was showing Washington that it could threaten both strategic sea lanes simultaneously, turning the conflict from a bilateral showdown into a threat to the shipping lanes that underpin global energy trade.

“Tehran is now escalating both in its immediate surroundings and beyond. The message is that it is not just Hormuz that is under threat, but also Bab el-Mandeb.”

The gradual spread of conflict

The danger, analysts say, is not so much in an immediate return to full-scale war, but rather in a slow but inexorable "gradual escalation of the conflict," in which each side raises the stakes without engaging in direct confrontation.

As the conflict spreads from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, the growing threat to trade and energy supplies could further increase pressure on Washington and Tehran to return to negotiations before the world's two most important oil shipping lanes become a major battleground.

Dennis Ross, a former US Middle East peace negotiator, said that, from Washington's perspective, "the question is how to change Iran's calculus to the point where it is ready to talk again, but not just talk, but actually reach a deal that is... acceptable."

Houthi attacks on merchant ships

The Houthis have already shown they can disrupt global trade through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. After the Gaza war broke out in October 2023, the Iran-backed group launched attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea, claiming to be targeting vessels affiliated with Israel in support of the Palestinians.

The campaign forced major shipping companies to reroute vessels around southern Africa, which increased transportation costs, and led to American and British air strikes, as well as the establishment of a multinational naval mission to protect shipping.

Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London's School of Security Studies, described the latest Houthi threat as "another nuclear option" for Iran, after the Strait of Hormuz - an option that Tehran would only use if the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps concluded that a return to full-scale war had become inevitable.

He warned, however, that if Washington steps up attacks on key Iranian infrastructure, Tehran could respond by using its Yemeni allies to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, further exacerbating the economic shock already caused by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Abdulaziz Sager, president of the Saudi Gulf Research Center, said Gulf states increasingly believe that diplomacy with Iran has reached its limits, despite the high cost that any wider conflict would impose on the region.

“Both a victorious and defeated Iran carry consequences for the region,” Sager told Reuters, adding that “many Gulf states might find the costs of the latter more acceptable if they led to a more stable regional security environment.”

He said the Houthis still have the ability to disrupt shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, but are unlikely to escalate the situation without a clear order from Tehran. Any attempt by the Houthis to disrupt maritime traffic, he added, could trigger a broader military response from the United States and its partners, aimed at significantly weakening the group's capabilities.

The war, launched by the US and Israel in late February, has destabilised the Gulf and spread across the region, with Iran attacking US bases in several countries. Thousands of people have been killed in the war, mostly in Iran and Lebanon.