"Wall Street Journal": China is preparing for regime change in Russia

Four years of war and international isolation have changed Vladimir Putin's position in relations with China. The Russian president is increasingly acting as a party seeking concessions rather than one setting conditions, while Beijing gradually prepares for his possible departure from power, writes the Wall Street Journal.

In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping called Russian leader Vladimir Putin a role model and praised his global influence. After the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, relations changed significantly.

Today, almost 40 percent of Russia's foreign trade is with China, while Russia's share in Chinese trade is less than four percent. Because of such a disparity in economic relations, Putin finds himself in an increasingly subordinate position in his communications with Beijing.

During Putin's visit to Beijing in May this year, the Russian side hoped to sign a contract for the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline. However, Chinese officials made the project conditional on selling gas at prices prevailing on the Russian domestic market. Such a requirement effectively meant that the Kremlin would have to subsidize the construction. The contract was ultimately not signed.

German entrepreneur Jörg Wutke described the situation as follows: "He received Putin like a tsar as a guest in his castle and sent him home."

The change in relations is also visible through symbolism. After Putin's visit, Chinese media published a photo of the Russian president looking at a joint portrait with Xi. Beijing claims that the aim of the shot was not to humiliate the Russian president.

Chinese officials are also concerned about Russia's military cooperation with North Korea. Beijing fears that the transfer of Russian technology could strengthen Pyongyang's nuclear capabilities, which would further bring South Korea and Japan closer to the United States.

China strengthens ties with Russian elite that could rule Russia after Putin

At the same time, China is strengthening ties with Russian officials and members of the elite who it estimates could shape the country's policy after Putin. Beijing is thus building long-term relationships with Russia's potential future leadership, not just with the current government, which is a signal that China is somehow expecting a change in Putin's regime, according to the Wall Street Journal, as reported by index.hr.

In late June, Beijing publicly called on Kiev and Moscow to cease hostilities and return to negotiations. On that occasion, a Chinese diplomat also mentioned for the first time the suffering of Ukrainian civilians.

However, in early July, it was reported that Russia and China had held secret military exercises related to the war in Ukraine. The exercises involved generals from both armies, and their preparation was personally approved by the Russian Minister of Defense.