Five months after the start of the US war with Iran, the number of Americans who expect the Middle East to slide into chaos is three times higher than the number who believe the war will bring greater stability to the region, a new survey by Reuters and Ipsos shows.
The poll, which lasted six days and ended on Monday, was conducted as Republican President Donald Trump again backed away from threats of "massive attacks" on Iran, further highlighting the uncertainty surrounding a conflict he initially claimed would yield a quick victory.
Half of respondents believe that US military action in Iran will destabilize the Middle East over the next year, nearly three times more than the 17 percent who believe that war will lead to greater stability in the region. Of these, 16 percent believe that the situation will not change significantly, while 17 percent said they were not sure or did not answer the question.
Americans also expressed pessimism about fuel prices, which have risen after Iran restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the key routes for global oil supplies. As many as 58 percent of respondents expect prices to rise further, while only 15 percent believe they will decrease.
Respondents expressed similar pessimism regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with most fearing that the situation will worsen in the coming years, with concerns about the possibility of new conflicts breaking out around the world.
Political risk
The survey results point to political risks for Trump and his Republicans, who are seeking to defend their narrow majority in Congress in the elections scheduled for November.
Trump returned to the White House in January 2025 promising to avoid “stupid wars,” which drew support from voters tired of two decades of conflict that followed the September 11, 2001, al-Qaeda terrorist attacks.
Republicans, despite their general support for Trump, are deeply divided on the issue of war with Iran. While 80 percent of them approve of his performance as president and 66 percent support his policy toward Iran, less than half – 41 percent – believe that war will contribute to greater stability in the Middle East over the next year.
The war has led to Iranian missile and drone attacks on neighboring countries and merchant ships, as well as a new wave of conflict in Lebanon, which has eased since a U.S.-brokered ceasefire. The Houthis, the Iran-backed rebels in Yemen, have also threatened Saudi ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea.
David Schenker, who served as the US State Department's Middle East envoy during Trump's first term, said the economic fallout could linger even if the fighting ends soon. However, he said it was not certain that the war would further destabilize the region, noting that US and Israeli strikes have significantly weakened Iran's military capabilities and its network of allies.
"I don't think the public understands the extent to which Iran's capabilities have been weakened, and it's a significant weakening," said Schenker, who now works at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
The war, which Trump and Israel launched in late February, has cost American taxpayers at least $37,5 billion, claimed the lives of 18 American soldiers and thousands of Iranians.
Unpopular rate
Only 35 percent of Americans support the war. When asked which political party has a better approach to dealing with war and terrorism, registered voters gave Democrats a 37-36 percent lead over Republicans for the first time. As of December 2024, Republicans had a 39-28 percent lead. The survey also found that for the first time in nearly a decade, voters believe Democrats are better at managing the economy.
“This war was unpopular from the start, and support has declined further since then,” said Justin Logan, director of the Center for Defense and Foreign Policy Studies at the Cato Institute.
According to him, Trump faces a difficult choice because he has set ambitious goals - destroying Iran's missile capabilities and preventing the development of nuclear weapons - while at the same time trying to limit American losses and the political cost of the conflict.
"The lack of a clear strategy in waging the war creates additional problems for the president," Logan said.
Fears about Ukraine and China
The survey showed that Americans are concerned not only about existing conflicts, but also about possible new ones. About 58 percent of respondents fear that the war between Russia and Ukraine could escalate further.
Fifty-five percent are concerned about a possible conflict between China and Taiwan, while 48 percent believe there is a risk of war between Russia and a European country other than Ukraine. About 37 percent of respondents fear that the United States could enter a war over Greenland.
The Reuters/Ipsos survey was conducted online among 4.505 adults across the United States, with a margin of error of two percentage points.
See more:
Download the app and follow the news
FOLLOW US ON
