The US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) justified its ban on robot imports by claiming that such "home" robots collect data that malicious actors could use to monitor American citizens, strengthen the capacities of foreign intelligence services, or remotely take control of robots.
Although the ban formally applies to imports from all countries, it is clear that it is primarily aimed at China.
According to data from the British bank Barclays, 85 percent of all humanoid robots in the world were produced in China last year.
Are robots really spies?
US officials warn that Chinese humanoid and quadrupedal robots can collect detailed user location data and other personal information, can be controlled remotely, and pose a potential risk to critical infrastructure in the United States.
Of particular concern is the possibility of their dual use, i.e. use for civilian and military purposes.
Unitri Robotics, one of China's leading robot manufacturers, is on the Pentagon's list of companies considered to be cooperating with the Chinese military. Its robots have already been used in military exercises.
It has also been shown that some robots from the company Unitri have security flaws that allow hackers to take control via voice commands, after which one robot can control other devices.
Washington is also concerned about the possibility that large numbers of cheap Chinese robots are sending real-world data to Chinese artificial intelligence systems, which are rapidly catching up with American competitors.
For now, this threat is largely theoretical, as most commercial humanoid robots are still in the early stages of development.
China announces response
China rejects the accusations and claims that the US, under the pretext of national security, is pursuing a protectionist policy aimed at restricting the Chinese technology industry.
It is expected that Beijing could respond with countermeasures, including restricting exports of raw materials needed by US robot manufacturers to increase production.
President Donald Trump's administration has made no secret of its desire to help the domestic robotics industry, which is also receiving support through nearly a trillion dollars in investments in the development of artificial intelligence.
According to analysts, the goal is to protect companies like Figure AI, Tesla Optimus, and Agility Robotics from Chinese competitors, whose products often cost half as much as American ones, and sometimes significantly less.
Washington has previously imposed similar restrictions on Chinese drones and solar panels, while it is now imposing a 100 percent tariff on Chinese electric vehicles.
How long does it take for American manufacturers?
Many analysts see the ban as an attempt to buy time for American industry, after Washington was caught off guard by the speed at which China has increased robot production.
According to data from research firm Omdia, China today has six companies among the world's ten leading robot manufacturers.
These companies delivered almost 11.600 humanoid robots last year, while American companies delivered only a few hundred.
Back in March, Bank of America estimated that the number of humanoid robot deliveries could reach around 90.000 units by the end of the year.
The US is still considered a leader in the development of robot "brains" thanks to advanced artificial intelligence systems.
China, on the other hand, is leading the way in mass production of cheaper robots with more advanced movements, thanks to high-quality actuators, or robotic "muscles."
Rash Doshi of the US Council on Foreign Relations called the ban "one of the most important measures to support the US robotics ecosystem to date."
A double-edged sword
Evan Bird, CEO of Standard Bots, a manufacturer of robotic arms, believes the Trump administration is sending an "unambiguous message" to China.
"Robots are a technology that America must lead in and maintain control over. Robots produced with foreign subsidies will not be allowed to unfairly dominate the American robotics market," Bird wrote on X.com.
Critics, however, warn that the ban could slow down the development of American artificial intelligence, because researchers currently benefit from the ability to test new systems on relatively cheap Chinese robots.
“Restrictions can reduce security risks, but they do not in themselves create a competitive domestic ecosystem,” wrote Georg Stiler, a consultant in the robotics industry, on X.
American business television channel CNBC quoted Mark Einstein from Counterpoint Research as saying that the ban was "bad news for Chinese humanoid robot manufacturers planning to go public in the coming months."
Einstein warns that China could now further restrict exports of rare earth metals to American companies, as well as access to the Chinese market for firms like Tesla and Nvidia.
Who will buy such robots?
Barclays estimates that the humanoid robot market, which is currently worth between two and three billion dollars, could reach a value of $200 billion by 2035 in the most optimistic scenario. To achieve this, further improvements in artificial intelligence, the physical capabilities of robots, and battery systems are needed.
Elon Musk is even more optimistic. He claims that Tesla's Optimus robot could become the "biggest product of all time," with potential long-term sales that could reach $10 trillion.
Musk believes that robots, which currently cost around $100.000, could be mass-produced to between $20.000 and $30.000 apiece, making them affordable enough for factories, warehouses, and eventually households.
The combination of Barclays' forecast and Tesla's target prices suggests that between seven and ten million humanoid robots could be sold annually by 2035.
In the short term, robots are expected to take over repetitive and physically demanding jobs in factories and warehouses. Later, their applications could expand to healthcare, elderly care, and various household chores.
See more:
Download the app and follow the news
FOLLOW US ON
