NATO's eastern flank is preparing for Russian provocations

Russia's northern NATO neighbors are beefing up security around dams, power plants and natural gas infrastructure, indicating growing concerns that Moscow could carry out a so-called false flag attack using Ukrainian drones.

Lithuania said last week that Russia was considering the possibility of organizing such an attack, while Poland, Latvia and Estonia have also warned of possible sabotage that would test NATO's response at a time when the United States' commitment to the Western military alliance is being questioned.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said last month that warnings of covert Russian attacks were “scary stories” that serve as justification for militarization directed against Russia.

Poland and the three Baltic states, which border Russia and on whose territory Ukrainian drones have already been found, do not want to leave anything to chance.

"We are not naive. We see the information, we read between the lines and we do our part," Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas told Reuters.

He, the Latvian prime minister and four intelligence and corporate officials from the region shared with Reuters new details of intelligence assessments and described measures being taken to protect infrastructure.

"We are increasing the security of critical infrastructure and are constantly exchanging information with intelligence services on further steps," Kaunas said.

Riot police and the military take up positions

Last month, Lithuania deployed troops to support special police units to secure a liquefied natural gas import terminal, a petroleum products terminal, a key energy pipeline to Poland, and the Kruonis hydroelectric power plant.

"We are sending a clear message that, if necessary, we will defend ourselves," Kaunas said.

Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs told Reuters that security had been stepped up around all key facilities, including the dam on the Daugava River near Riga and the Inčukalns underground gas storage facility.

"A potential hybrid threat is more likely today than before," he said.

Russia accused the Baltic states in May of planning to allow Ukrainian drones to attack Russian territory, vowing to respond to such actions. The accusations sparked outrage and fears that Moscow could orchestrate such an attack itself to justify retaliation.

A Baltic intelligence official said assessments indicate that Russian military and intelligence services are planning a possible false-flag attack on infrastructure in Russia, the Baltic states or Poland, using Ukrainian-made drones, days after approval from the highest state leadership, including President Vladimir Putin.

The biggest concern is not the immediate damage, but the possibility of causing political chaos at NATO headquarters in Brussels, where European members and the United States would debate how and whether to respond at all.

According to him, the biggest concern is not the immediate damage, but the possibility of causing political chaos at NATO headquarters in Brussels, where European members and the United States would debate how and whether to respond at all.

Another official from the region was more cautious, saying that numerous warnings from allied intelligence services had made a strong impression on the Baltic countries, but that attacks could happen "anytime or never."

Moscow says the West, driven by “Russophobia,” is constantly accusing it of malicious activities without providing evidence. NATO and the Russian embassy in Vilnius did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.

Concerns in Poland over nuclear program

Poland's largest oil and gas company Orlen is analyzing alternative routes for gas imports in case existing routes are threatened, a source familiar with the situation said.

The company imports 80 percent of its gas via the liquefied natural gas terminal in Świnoujście on the Baltic Sea and an undersea pipeline from Norway. Gaz-System, which manages the infrastructure, is on high alert.

The state-owned company responsible for building Poland's first nuclear power plant has announced that forged documents have emerged with the aim of misleading the public, and that the clues lead to an area east of Poland.

The company is cooperating with special services and the police, while simultaneously monitoring the possibility of sabotage or other threats at the site of the planned power plant.

The Polish electricity grid operator and a military unit have stepped up security measures around the power line to Ukraine, which plays an important role in stabilizing Ukraine's war-damaged grid.

Meanwhile, unidentified drones are appearing across Europe. Last week, German authorities found a drone with explosives at Leipzig/Halle airport. German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt called the incident a hybrid attack, but did not say who might be responsible.

The director of the Polish Center for Eastern Studies (OSW), Wojciech Kononczuk, said that Moscow's accusations against the Baltic states could be a prelude to future Russian actions.

According to him, the goal could be to regain a strategic advantage, while the message to Europe would be that destabilization will spread if European countries do not accept Moscow's demands.

The biggest concern is not the immediate damage, but the possibility of causing political chaos at NATO headquarters in Brussels, where European members and the United States would debate how and whether to respond at all.