Increasingly drawn into a war it did not choose, Saudi Arabia is building regional defense alliances that it hopes will deter its enemies and help it respond more forcefully to attacks from Iran and its network of regional allies.
However, initial attempts to establish a multinational naval coalition in the Red Sea, as well as the decision to include Turkey in a defense pact with the Kingdom and Pakistan, have so far failed to prevent attacks, analysts and diplomats say.
The kingdom's own military responses to attacks from Iran, Iraq and Yemen's Houthis, who opened a southern front against the kingdom last month and attacked Saudi ships, have so far been limited, Reuters recalls.
Riyadh faces a dilemma: how to deter attacks and protect the ambitious economic vision it is pursuing without getting embroiled in a broader regional conflict sparked by the war between the US and Iran.
As one Middle East official told the British agency: "The problem with Saudi Arabia is that the kingdom's enemies know that it wants to avoid war. They are exploiting that."
"All of this is very worrying and is exactly what Saudi Arabia wanted to avoid," said Aziz al-Ghashiyan, a Saudi analyst and senior non-resident fellow at the Gulf International Forum.
"Iran and its allies think that Saudi Arabia will not respond. They interpreted restraint practically as accepting the fact that it could be a target and that is why it was very important for Saudi Arabia to find a way to deter them. The question is how to strike a balance," he said.
After signing the defense pact, the Houthis again attacked oil facilities in the kingdom.
Gradual escalation
Since the US and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28, Saudi Arabia has sought to endure the attacks, deciding to first pursue purely diplomatic channels, before embarking on limited military responses that have been kept secret.
It achieved a temporary détente with Iran around the time the ceasefire with the US came into effect in April and established itself as a safer haven in the Gulf.
In the last few weeks, much of that has been called into question.
The kingdom has faced serious attacks on key oil infrastructure from Yemen and Iraq, as well as on its ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
Two weeks ago, Saudi Arabia and the United States launched joint airstrikes on Iraqi militias they said were involved in attacks on the kingdom. It was the first public Saudi response during the war, although Riyadh has sought to avoid the impression that the US-Israeli ally is at odds.
Two days later, Riyadh announced its intention to lead a naval defense coalition in the Red Sea.
Last week, a joint defense agreement with Turkey and Pakistan was announced in Mecca.
"This is Saudi Arabia's way of sending a signal to Iran that we are ready to move further up the escalation ladder - of course, first through diplomacy, before we cross the line of diplomacy and step to the other side," Jasmine Farouk, director of the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula project at Crisis Group, told Reuters.
"The way I see this pact and the coalition, Saudi Arabia is gradually approaching the final stages of a policy of de-escalation and deterrence," she said, noting that the coalitions are still a kind of "test bubble" and that joint military action is currently unlikely.
Defense Treaty of Mecca
Announced at Islam's holiest site and after Friday prayers, the defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan carries a symbolic message of Muslim countries pledging to defend each other as if they were one "ummah," or Muslim community, said Sultan Alamer, a nonresident fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Program.
In practice, however, the roles seem less clear.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Saturday that the agreement was technically the same as NATO's Article 5 and would require consultations by all parties to determine what kind of support would be provided to a country under attack, if it requested it.
Islamabad, within the framework of the existing defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, has sought to avoid military involvement in a conflict with Iran or its allies, and has succeeded in doing so despite Saudi Arabia being subjected to hundreds of missile and drone attacks.
Iran presented the agreement as a step towards reducing its reliance on external powers, apparently alluding to the United States, and said there was no reason for concern "as long as it correctly identifies the enemy and the threat."
Yemeni problem
On Saudi Arabia's southern border, Yemen's Houthis last month broke a four-year ceasefire, declared a naval blockade of the kingdom and targeted its oil infrastructure.
The Houthi attacks showed that the kingdom remains vulnerable to asymmetric warfare and revived memories of the 2019 crisis, when Saudi oil production was halved after Houthi drone and missile attacks that Reuters earlier reported were planned by Iran.
Yemen is a particular sore point for the kingdom, which led a military intervention in 2015 after the Iran-backed Houthis seized the capital Sanaa, drawing international condemnation for the high number of war and famine casualties.
As Yemen moves closer to war again, Riyadh this time wants the Yemeni government to lead any potential offensive, and has previously said that a multinational naval coalition is needed to protect shipping in the Red Sea.
Invitations to participate were sent just days before the first meeting, several participants said, showing how urgently Saudi Arabia approached the mission.
So far, 14 countries in the region have joined, with more expected. Western diplomats say European countries are still considering whether to join, concerned about the extent to which they could be drawn into the war in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia wants to officially announce the formation of the coalition as soon as possible, and meetings are planned this week in Jeddah.
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