Cracks between the US and its allies are opening up space for China

Chinese leader Xi Jinping arrived in Central Asia this week with a message to a world increasingly shaken by the moves of US President Donald Trump: China has friends and influence and is ready to help shape what comes next.

That message was at the heart of a security summit in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, where Xi met with the leaders of Russia and Iran. He presented Beijing as a source of stability and a proponent of an "orderly multipolar world" that would replace the existing international order dominated by the United States, the New York Times reported.

If the summit in Bishkek was supposed to demonstrate unity, the meeting of representatives of the world's most powerful economies in the mountains near Asheville, North Carolina, presented a picture of division.

European officials attending a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of 20 countries this week expressed outrage at the Trump administration’s decision to invite Russia, despite its war in Ukraine. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said Canada was too small to wage a trade war with the United States. At the same time, officials were already grappling with the economic fallout from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which has disrupted oil flows, raised global energy prices and threatened to slow economic growth.

The Times writes that the simultaneous gatherings in different parts of the world reflected a broader struggle over who will shape the next phase of the global order. China is using its alignment with Russia and Iran, two countries at odds with the West, to demonstrate its influence and strengthen Xi's position ahead of his meeting with Trump. The United States, on the other hand, is testing the alliances and economic relationships that have been the foundation of American global leadership for decades, according to an analysis by the American newspaper.

"The basic logic of China's effort to reshape the international political order in its favor is to rally the support of the 'global majority,'" said Ryan Haas, a former career diplomat and White House national security official who now works at the Brookings Institution.

"That's why Xi's involvement in these groups is so important to Beijing," he added. "It builds a narrative that China is gaining momentum in gaining support for a more important role on the world stage."

At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Bishkek, Xi met with the leaders of Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Uzbekistan, but his talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin carried the most weight. Just days earlier, CIA Director John Ratcliffe had secretly traveled to Moscow to urge the Kremlin to end the war in Ukraine.

"The foundation of China-Russia relations will become increasingly solid," Xi told Putin.

Iranian President Masoud Pazakhstani also attended the summit. Iranian media reported that he met with Xi on the sidelines of the gathering, but the two apparently did not have scheduled talks.

Putin, however, held a meeting with the Iranian president, praising the "courage and resilience" of the Iranian people in fighting for their national interests. The Russian leader stressed that Moscow is providing assistance to Tehran amid the conflict with the United States.

"In this difficult period, we are trying to provide you with the assistance you need," Putin said. "We have discussed this and are supplying you with the necessary goods."

Earlier in the day, Putin welcomed the consolidation of a new center of power within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, calling the grouping "one of the independent and influential centers of the emerging multipolar world." He noted that its member states are home to nearly half of the world's population and generate more than a third of the world's gross domestic product.

In contrast, the Times writes, the US appears to be distancing itself from its traditional allies, weakening its ability to project power globally. Trump has launched a trade war with Canada and scaled back military exercises with South Korea. At the same time, concerns are growing that the US is depleting its ammunition stockpiles in a war with Iran and may not be able to meet its defense commitments around the world.

German Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil told reporters at the G20 meeting that it was "worrying" that the Trump administration had invited Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. Klingbeil said he had strongly criticized Siluanov during the meeting on Monday over Russia's war in Ukraine.

Many European officials were also angered by the US Treasury Department's decision not to invite representatives of South Africa, a long-time member of the G20 and Africa's largest economy.

Opportunity for China

The Times says Beijing is happy to seize the opportunity Trump is giving it by distancing partners from Washington. Wu Xinbo, an expert on American studies at Fudan University in Shanghai and an adviser to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said Beijing has two goals: to build a consensus broad enough that the United States can no longer set the agenda on its own, and to take a greater role in driving the global economy.

"Now that the US economy is losing momentum, or even producing negative consequences, China must take a greater role in driving and leading global growth," he said.

Despite China's rhetoric about encouraging growth, its efforts to influence the direction of the world economy are largely defensive, the Times writes. At the G20 meeting, which China also attended, Beijing used the opportunity to make its case. US Treasury Secretary Besant said on Tuesday that the group had failed to agree on a joint statement because China objected to language criticizing its export strategy.

Beijing has two goals: to build a broad enough consensus that the US can no longer set the agenda on its own, and to take a greater role in driving the global economy.

The Bishkek meeting was just one stop in Xi's broader diplomatic campaign to maintain ties on both sides of a growing divide in global politics, the analysis said, noting that he has hosted a number of Western leaders this year, including representatives from Germany, Britain and Canada. He arrived in Cairo late on Tuesday and is also expected to attend a summit of the BRICS countries, a group of emerging economies led by China and India, in New Delhi later this month.

However, as much as Xi wants to present such groups as a unified counterweight to the West, serious disagreements and tensions remain among their members, the analysis states.

"Beijing and New Delhi have traditionally disagreed within BRICS over how to position themselves towards the US, with India not wanting an overly confrontational approach," the Times said.

Another sign of cracks within the bloc came from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who, during talks with Putin on the sidelines of a summit in Kyrgyzstan, urged the Russian president to end the war in Ukraine for the sake of "humanity." Putin responded, according to Russian state media, that Russia was "moving in that direction."

The Times reports that the Bishkek summit also showed the limits of solidarity within the group. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is not a military alliance. Beijing can provide diplomatic support, but has not shown a willingness to commit its forces to defending Russia or Iran.

For China, this is precisely the meaning of such an order, according to Zhou Bo, a retired colonel in the People's Liberation Army of China, who now works at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

"It's not based on alliances, so it's not provocative," he said. "That's why people have no problem accepting it or participating in it."

As Washington retreats and the world becomes increasingly multipolar, states will, according to Zhou, increasingly opt for more pragmatic forums that entail fewer obligations.

"It's natural for everyone to try to leave themselves more options," he said.

Strengthening the negotiating position before the summit with Trump

China's diplomatic show of force also reflects Xi's need to expand his room for maneuver ahead of a meeting with Trump in Washington later this month. Although the United States and China have reached an economic truce, the Trump administration has continued to pressure Beijing, banning imports of Chinese robots and expanding sanctions on Chinese companies that import Iranian oil, the Times reported.

Trump administration officials have also taken steps to slow China’s progress in artificial intelligence (AI), threatening to impose restrictions on Chinese AI models that draw on data from U.S. models. The Trump administration is preparing to warn dozens of countries not to participate in China’s AI initiative or risk being left out of the U.S. AI coalition, Pax Silica, according to a letter drafted by the State Department and seen by The New York Times. It is unclear whether the letters have been sent. The State Department said it does not comment on the alleged leaked documents, but added that the United States is working with other countries to promote responsible AI development.

As Washington retreats and the world becomes increasingly multipolar, states will increasingly opt for more pragmatic forums that entail fewer obligations.

China also faces potential trade restrictions from Europe. Lawmakers in Brussels are trying to slow the influx of Chinese products, such as electric vehicles, solar panels and industrial chemicals, that are flooding the European Union market and accelerating the loss of tens of thousands of jobs.

The analysis also points to Xi’s domestic weaknesses. The most immediate problem is flooding along the border with Nepal, where thousands of people have died or are missing, raising questions about China’s preparedness to respond to such disasters. The second is a multi-year housing crisis that has weighed on the Chinese economy and forced Beijing to increasingly rely on exports as a growth driver, even as such a strategy has also soured relations with trading partners.

"China is facing an unfavorable situation, and so is the United States," said Jun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington. "The right balance needs to be found between providing enough support and approval within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization without provoking Trump too openly."