The islands that could decide the battle for Taiwan

In the pre-dawn darkness on an island in the Taiwan Strait early last month, Taiwanese soldiers were pulling long, gleaming 105-millimeter shells from green plastic containers. After all the ammunition had been checked and safely loaded through the hatches of four tanks, the soldiers waited in silence for the order to fire.

These soldiers are among thousands of troops garrisoning the Penghu Islands and training for war with China, Reuters writes, adding that if Beijing decides to attack, they will be on the front line of Taiwan's defense.

A popular tourist destination known for its pristine beaches and coral reefs, this strategically important archipelago of 90 islands, about 50 kilometers off the southwest coast of the main island of Taiwan, would be hit in the first wave of a possible Chinese invasion attempt, senior Taiwanese security officials and military experts told the British agency.

For Taiwan, retaining control of Penghu would allow its forces to counter a Chinese invasion fleet heading toward the mainland, security experts said. To prevent Chinese ships and aircraft from becoming targets, Beijing would have to seize Penghu or destroy the long-range missiles of the garrison there.

If Penghu were occupied, the entire Taiwan Strait would effectively fall under Chinese control, said the official, who asked to remain anonymous.

If Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) ships tried to attack Taiwan by bypassing Penghu, "they could find themselves targeted by missiles from Penghu," said Su Tzu-jun of Taiwan's leading military institute, the National Defense and Security Research Institute.

“It forces the PLA to attack Penghu before it can attack Taiwan,” he said.

By deploying longer-range weapons, such as Hsiung Feng III missiles, on Penghu, Taiwan could make it more difficult for the Chinese military to mass forces along China's coast for an invasion, a senior Taiwanese official told Reuters. Those forces could be targeted before they even move across the strait.

If Penghu were occupied, the entire Taiwan Strait would effectively fall under Chinese control, said the official, who asked to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the subject.

Taipei is investing in Penghu's defense, including programs to strengthen the resilience of the island's approximately 110.000 residents in the event of war.

China threatens total destruction in case of war

Beijing, which is conducting a major strengthening of its military capabilities, has not ruled out the possibility of using force against Taiwan.

China's push to seize control of Taiwan is at the heart of a wider competition between Beijing and Washington for influence in the Asia-Pacific region. China considers democratic Taiwan part of its territory, and President Xi Jinping has ordered the PLA to be ready to take over the island by 2027, according to US officials. Taipei says Taiwan is already independent and its future can only be decided by the Taiwanese people.

China's Defense Ministry did not respond to Reuters questions about Penghu, and ministry spokesman Jiang Bin told reporters earlier this year that Taiwan's plans to fortify the island were "increasingly absurd and misleading" and that Taipei faced "complete destruction" if it provoked war.

For soldiers waiting in the dark during a drill on the main island of the Penghu archipelago on August 10, the silence was broken by artillery hidden under camouflage nets, firing illuminating shells towards the sea. The shells exploded in the distance with a deep bang, illuminating the approaches to the island from the sea.

During a series of maneuvers, four tanks, along with armored personnel carriers, pushed through clouds of dust, exhaust fumes, and smoke from explosions, opening fire on the “attackers” who were trying to disembark.

The live-fire exercise, held on the sixth day of the annual Han Kuang maneuvers, was part of a Taiwan-wide drill to repel an airborne and naval landing.

That same week, the Naval Coastal Operations Command deployed to Penghu for the first time, sending powerful Hsiung Feng missile launchers to positions along the coast as part of anti-ship and amphibious operations, Taiwanese military officials familiar with the situation told Reuters.

Penghu's strategic location, along with the presence of such weapons, makes the islands a prime target for the PLA, Su said. The other two large Taiwanese islands off the Chinese coast, Kinmen and Matsu, are too close to China to be a useful part of a broader defense network, he said.

He added, however, that Taiwanese forces could catch Chinese invasion ships in a missile crossfire between the Penghu Islands and the mainland. Missiles deployed on the islands could also launch "counterstrikes" deeper into Chinese territory, he said.

In war simulation, Penghu fell in just one day

Taiwan's Ministry of Defense is encouraging the use of drones in the defense of Penghu. The military formed its first drone unit on the islands in July, and the drones were used during the Han Kuang exercises.

The United States, Taiwan's most important security partner, also emphasizes the importance of drones in the island's eventual defense.

Beijing strictly limits public discussion of specific military plans related to Taiwan, although Chinese strategists have previously pointed to the importance of the islands. Retired Lieutenant General Wang Honguang, for example, suggested in 2019 that the PLA “strategically suppress” Taiwan by seizing the Penghu Islands, according to Chinese state media reports.

During a war simulation last year, attended by retired American, Taiwanese and Japanese military officials, Penghu fell just a day after China began surprise, long-range attacks on military and infrastructure targets across Taiwan.

The quick surrender to the PLA surprised Taiwanese participants in the exercise, which was organized by a Taipei-based think tank, according to a summary report on the exercise seen by Reuters.

When asked about the war simulation, Taiwan's Ministry of Defense referred to a statement last year by Defense Minister Wellington Kuo that the government takes such exercises into account when adjusting its defense plans.

As the Taiwanese military practices repelling a Chinese landing, officials and residents of Penghu are preparing to play their part.

Yen Min-ching is one of approximately 1.200 people on Penghu who have been certified under the Taiwanese government's “whole-of-society resilience defense” program. Volunteers are trained to provide support, including first aid, in the event of emergencies such as earthquakes and invasions.

Yen, a retired police officer who is now an elected local community representative, is keenly aware of Penghu's exposed position between the Chinese coast and Taiwan and has been encouraging residents to sign up for the program. By the end of the year, about 200.000 people across Taiwan are expected to complete the training.

"We absolutely have to have a sense that a crisis could break out," said Chen Chen-chung, mayor of Hus Municipality, which includes key infrastructure, including cargo ports and an airport used for civilian and military purposes, as well as the main power plant on Penghu.

The Penghu Islands “would definitely be among the first places to be attacked,” said Chen, who leads a civil defense group of about 100 people tasked with providing support in the war. Their tasks can include distributing food, erecting defensive fortifications and countering enemy propaganda.

Preparations for war, blockade and shortages

Local businessmen, such as car repair shop owner Hoa Chi-hue, have signed cooperation agreements with Taiwanese authorities.

During an exercise in August, which simulated a situation in which military logistics facilities were damaged, armed soldiers joined employees at Ho's workshop as they practiced emergency repairs to military vehicles.

Ho acknowledges that such activities could make his company a target in a war, but says he accepts the risk.

“We have a responsibility to protect our own country and our way of life.”

Penghu is also bracing for the possibility of Chinese coercion that would not involve direct military attack. Beijing could impose a blockade of Taiwan, which could quickly choke Taipei's trade-dependent economy and leave remote islands like Penghu isolated.

Residents who run out of supplies could quickly capitulate, according to Kao Yu-zhou, a 15-year-old schoolgirl from the island.

"People might think: let's surrender first, get something to eat, and then, when we're full, we'll see what happens next."

Taxi driver William Chen, however, says he would resist:

"If my homeland were attacked, there's no way I would just stand by."

Magong, the urban center of Penghu, is training to respond to crisis situations through exercises that simulate a blockade and full-scale war, said its mayor Huang Jianzhong.

City authorities have signed agreements with grocery stores, pharmacies and construction companies to provide emergency supplies and repair capacity in the event of a crisis, government documents show.

Chen, the head of Husi Municipality, also advises residents to keep enough supplies in their homes for more than two weeks.

If a battle does occur, it would not be the first time. The islands, which have a deep natural harbor, have served as a launching point for invasions of Taiwan for centuries. While Taiwan was a Japanese colony during World War II, the harbor was the target of Allied bombing near the end of the war.

Some analysts believe Penghu would offer strong resistance. It was the possibility of heavy casualties during World War II that led U.S. military planners to abandon a planned offensive on the islands as part of a broader invasion of Taiwan, Ian Easton of the U.S. Naval War College, a leading researcher on Chinese plans to invade Taiwan, told Reuters.

“I suppose if that terrible moment ever comes, the PLA will find that these islands are a very tough nut to crack,” he said.