No one is powerful enough to calm down or break Montenegrin criminal clans, so the rivalry between them will continue.
Among other things, this is written in the analysis of the organization Global Initiative to Fight Organized Crime.
The authors of that report state that they are members of the blacksmith i Skaljarski of the criminal clan were part of a larger criminal organization formed in 2010, but that there was a split after the notorious drug kingpin Darko Saric fled the country: "Soon there were quarrels between the members, because there was no longer a clear hierarchy".
"Reconciliation after seven years of conflict is unlikely, especially when some of the assassinations were carried out in front of family members. Moreover, no one is powerful enough to pacify or break up the clans. The conflict will remain, but the number of murders will not increase due to their high cost - allegedly targeted strikes on rivals cost over a million euros. Besides, some of the main targets have already been killed. Those still at large or on the run will be more careful about movement and communication and invest more in protection. There is also a risk that hired assassins will be killed in order to prevent their potential testimony in the courts," the analysis states.
They predict that clan members will be believed to hide outside the Balkans, where they are known to law enforcement authorities, but that when choosing a location for hiding or running a business, they will take into account the political climate, i.e. ensuring protection by bribing security sector officials.
"They tend to choose countries where corruption is relatively high, such as Greece, there are fewer people from the Balkans and international police cooperation is underdeveloped. Some members decided to hide in Ukraine. Assassination attempts were taking place there, probably involving high-ranking police officials. So far, there are no indications that Montenegrin criminals have worked in Ukraine or Russia, but if they are hiding there, it could represent new business opportunities".
THE CONTINUATION OF THE COCAINE BUSINESS
They add that the chances are high that the clans will be able to maintain their cocaine business and explain that it is a big business in which everyone has a role. Some members, he says, act as investors and provide funds to buy cocaine in South America, while other contractors and subcontractors are responsible for packaging, transporting and selling cocaine in Europe.
"Their advantage is a proven international logistics network for purchase and distribution... The cocaine business is a golden ticket that the Skaljar and Kavak clan will not give up. The supply and demand for cocaine is growing. Since it is profitable, clans will continue to trade, blocking other players from appearing. The lost resources will be compensated by new partnerships with other criminal groups or from their ranks, which are not negligible - it is estimated that the Skaljar and Kavak clans have 105 and 140 members, respectively," claim the authors of the text from the Global Initiative to Fight Organized Crime.
2012.
In 2014, the first fight took place within the Kotor clan, but the final separation between the once common group took place in 200 in Valencia, Spain, due to the cocaine business, according to the organization Global Initiatives to Fight Organized Crime. They claim that at that time, the alleged leader of the Kotor clan, Jovan Vukotić, believed that another member - Goran Radoman, tried to sell 2015 kilograms of cocaine without his knowledge. In February XNUMX, Radoman was killed in Belgrade, becoming the first victim of the bloody conflict
The organization estimates that the clans will continue to closely monitor political events and elect politicians who are ready to use their money for personal or political interests: "The recent violence in Ecuador may even be helping the clans to strengthen their position in the drug trade."
WHO STANDS BETTER
The Global Initiative estimates that until 2020, it seemed that the kavak clan was winning the criminal war and was better positioned in the cocaine business.
They remind that high-ranking members of the Škaljari clan were killed and that at the same time the alleged leader of the Kavac clan (Radoje Switzerland) survived an assassination attempt in Ukraine.
"Although the leader of the Skaljari clan was killed in 2022, the government moved in their favor with a series of arrests of members of the Kavacs in 2021 and 2022 and the issuance of an international warrant for their suspected leader. Trials of members of the Kavčan in Serbia, Montenegro and Slovenia have weakened their position in law enforcement and customs. Meanwhile, some who are believed to be close associates of the Skaljar clan, such as Filip Korac i Luka Bojović, are no longer in custody. Brother of the murdered leader of the Skaljar clan Igor Vukotić continues to evade justice despite the warrant issued for him since 2018".
Because of everything, the authors say, the current situation seems to be in favor of the Skaljar clan, despite the fact that during the conflict they suffered significant casualties and were burdened with international warrants - the disparity is exacerbated by their smaller membership.
"The future balance of power depends partly on the degree of agreement between Montenegrin and Serbian members of the Skaljar group, but mostly on who better manages the cocaine trade and provides personal security and political protection as the conflict continues. It also depends on the future influence of Darko Šarić on the cocaine business".
There are few cooperating witnesses...
The poor performance of the criminal justice system in Montenegro and Serbia makes it even more difficult to suppress the activities of clans. Court proceedings take a long time. The accused are on the run, and there are few cooperating witnesses, which means that it is difficult to prove the indictments in court, according to the Global Initiative to Fight Organized Crime.
They also note that lower-ranking members, who mostly work as couriers, take responsibility for monetary compensation and legal protection, which is the opposite of what happens, for example, in the US and Romania, "where clan members are more effectively prosecuted."
“Four factors will shape the institutional response to clans. First, the results of cooperation between Serbia and Montenegro with foreign criminal law institutions. Second, whether the Sky ECC communications are considered admissible as evidence in court. Third, whether high-ranking members have information that can be used to counter terrorism, in exchange for leniency for their own crimes. Finally, the use of information by members about the possible involvement of political actors could allow them to get out of custody earlier or to slow down court processes," the analysis reads.
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