Reconstruction of the Government is the only way to clear up the current political situation and avoid instability, Ana Nenezić from the Institute for Socio-Political Research Analitiko assessed.
She believes that the reconstruction of the Government will be much faster than announced, possibly by the end of April. According to the coalition agreement of the parties in power, the reconstruction of the Government should take place by the end of the year at the latest. "Vijesti" previously announced that the reconstruction of the Government will be in two phases - in the spring and in the fall.
"As for the elections, it is not realistic to expect them at least until the beginning of autumn, regardless of further developments", Nenezić said to "Vijesta", commenting on the new political instability caused by the disagreement between the coalition partners in power, the Europe Now Movement (PES) and the Democrats regarding by the appointment of the acting director of the Police Administration, which is why the opposition is calling for extraordinary elections.
Disagreements between PES and the Democrats over the security sector have been going on since December, and relations between them worsened after the government elected Aleksandar Radović as acting director of the police on the proposal of Prime Minister Milojko Spajić at around three in the morning on Wednesday. Before that, the government, in a marathon session, rejected the proposal of Interior Minister Danilo Saranović (Democrat) to appoint police officer Lazar Šćepanović to that position.
Democrats and a number of lawyers say that the Government violated Article 16 paragraph 4 of the Law on Internal Affairs, which clearly stipulates that the Acting Police Director is chosen by the Government on the proposal of the Minister of Internal Affairs, not the Prime Minister. PES, however, claim that the Government does not have to accept the minister's proposal.
"The government is not obliged to support the minister's proposal. I do not agree that we have entered into a violation of the law. The line minister had no more proposals and the government authorized the prime minister to propose a candidate and I proposed the one with the best references", Spajić said at the press conference yesterday.
Defense Minister Dragan Krapović (Democrats) yesterday repeated the position of his party colleagues that Radović was illegally appointed and that the institutions must answer the question. He also said that this caused political and institutional instability in Montenegro, while Spajić claims that "most are stable".
However, the leader of the Democrats Aleksa Bečić and Saranović did not attend yesterday's Government session. Spajić said that he was convinced that they had an excuse for not attending.
When asked by a journalist whether Democratic Montenegro, of which he is an official, still supports the government of Milojko Spajić, Krapović replied that "the party authorities will give the answer."
Ana Nenezić says that the events at the last session of the Government are only the culmination of the struggle to occupy positions of power in the executive power, between two political entities that have no experience of previous cooperation, nor previously built political trust that would guarantee a certain predictability in their moves.
"Without going into the legality of the decisions made, but looking exclusively at the strategic political position of both political entities, I believe that the Democrats made the wrong political move, without a prior clear understanding of real power, and without a prepared exit strategy, believing that public pressure will ultimately win victory and achieve the expected result", she assessed.
According to the moves after the end of the Government session, "it would be said that the Democrats do not have a ready exit strategy, but also that there is no agreement within the party regarding further steps", said Nenezić.
He believes that there is an added burden and the moment when any instigation of a political crisis, in response to the potential receipt of the Report on fulfillment of temporary criteria (IBAR) for chapters 23 and 24, carries the risk of creating a perception as a destabilizing factor.
"An important factor is the unrealistic expectation that the PES, i.e. Prime Minister Spajić, will relinquish control over the security sector, especially after the experience and consequences of the previous two governments in this domain, regardless of the signed coalition agreement and the positions guaranteed by that document to the Democrats," said Nenezić. .
According to her, the Democrats now have several possible scenarios, each of which carries certain consequences.
"If they decide to take the radical step of leaving the government, it entails the loss of direct influence on political processes and the possibility of being blamed for causing political instability and directly responsible if Montenegro does not receive the final benchmarks for chapters 23 and 24. However, it would also give room Democrats for the reaffirmation of political independence, increasing credibility among voters who value principledness and the possibility of positioning themselves as the main opposition force ready to oppose undesirable political moves," Nenezić said.
He adds that the Democrats could decide to stay in the government while negotiating for greater influence or compensation in other fields, or as a last resort, opt for a model of public criticism without leaving the government in order to maintain some form of influence and avoid accusations of causing political instability.
"This already carries the risk of losing credibility and authority, as well as the risk of being perceived as a passive partner who accepts imposed solutions. Which of these solutions the Democrats will decide on, I believe, depends on the influence of other subjects of the parliamentary majority who can significantly mediate in the negotiations, if they see a political interest in it, but also on reaching an agreement in the party regarding further steps", she explained.
Nenezić believes that compared to the Democrats, PES, that is, Spajić is in a politically more comfortable position.
"I believe that the Prime Minister and PES will firmly hold their position, insisting on their decision as a necessity for effective government management. In this way, they achieve the consolidation of power and the successful assumption of control over key sectors necessary for the realization of their political agenda", she said.
Spajić can replace Democrats with BS, SD and HGI
Ana Nenezić believes that in the event that relations with the Democrats, or a part of the Democrats, become unsustainable, PES and the Prime Minister have the option of seeking support from other political parties through the formation of new coalition arrangements.
"In addition to the Bosniaks, potential cooperation with the Social Democrats and the Croatian Citizen Initiative (HGI) should not be ruled out, although in terms of the required majority their support is not decisive even if the party of Mr. (Milan) Knežević (DNP) decides to leave the parliamentary majority," Nenezić said. .
Spajić formed the government at the end of October last year with the Democrats, the Socialist People's Party (SNP), the Albanian Forum, the Albanian Alliance and Civis. Parliament's support for Spajić's government is provided by the coalition For the Future of Montenegro (New Serbian Democracy and the Democratic People's Party), which will enter the government after the reconstruction, which is planned for the end of the year at the latest.
This means that Spajić's Government is supported by a total of 46 MPs. In the event that the Democrats leave the Government, and BS enters, Spajić loses the support of seven Democrats, as well as four from the DNP, because the leader of that party, Milan Knežević, announced that "if BS enters the Government, he will leave."
In that case, Spajić would have the support of 35 deputies, and with six BS deputies, he would receive the minimum support of 41 deputies. Yesterday, when asked who could replace the Democrats if they leave the government, Spajić replied that "the majority is stable".
"And I don't expect any changes, I wouldn't talk about such eventualities," Spajić added.
When asked if he would initiate the dismissal of Šaranović, he replied that they had no formal complaints and that he would not comment on it now.
Spajić also said that no one contacted him from the Special State Prosecutor's Office (STP), which collects information regarding the events at the Government session, at which, on his proposal, the acting director of the police was appointed.
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