President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić will continue with harsh rhetoric towards the Montenegrin government, especially regarding its views on Kosovo's entry into the Council of Europe (CoE) and possible support for the UN resolution on the genocide in Srebrenica. However, the representatives of the pro-Serbian parties in Montenegro will not threaten the country's foreign policy priorities, according to the interlocutors of "Vijesti".
They also say that at the upcoming "Easter Parliament", which should be held in Serbia at the beginning of May on Vučić's initiative, no decisions will be made that could threaten the sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and Montenegro, regardless of the announcements of the leaders of the Republic. Srpska (RS) Milorad Dodik about the adoption of the declaration "which will be the path for action in the future" and his threats that the RS will move towards independence.
Professor of political sociology at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade Zoran Stojiljkovic, he told "Vijesta" that all the strategies and campaigns of Vučić and Dodik are happening at the same time on several levels, i.e. for internal and external use.
"On the public and political scene of Montenegro, as well as Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, this time of increased pressure will have an impact depending on the nature of the answers offered by the participants of the 'parliament,'" he said, answering the question of how the noise that Vučić is making due to the announcement of Kosovo's admission to the SE and the adoption of the UN resolution on Srebrenica, and the holding of the "Easter Assembly" will reflect on Montenegro and its political scene.
Program Director of NGO "UZOR" Marko Pejović, claims that there is no doubt that Vučić will continue his down-to-earth rhetoric towards representatives of the authorities in Montenegro, but also that none of the representatives of that authority will speak out or react, as has happened in some cases.
"Analyzing the events so far and the violation of the coalition agreement, there is every possibility that there is an oral agreement between the Europe Now Movement (PES) and the coalition for the future of Montenegro (ZBCG), that the ZBCG implements its political ideology without the reaction of anyone from the PES, and that In this way, the interests of both sides are satisfied - PES to make decisions in accordance with the foreign policy priorities and interests of Montenegro, and ZBCG to satisfy its electorate and act in accordance with its long-established policy", said Pejović.
A few days ago, Vučić said that big "battles" are ahead of Serbia against the entry of Kosovo into the SE and the adoption of the resolution on Srebrenica. At the end of March, he criticized the Montenegrin Minister of European Affairs Maida Gorcevic, who said in Pristina that Podgorica will support Kosovo's entry into the CE when the Committee of Ministers of that organization decides on it.
"I saw this minister from Montenegro, who was all nervous, what's her name, Gorčević. Shame on them all together. Since they think they have the right and that it is normal to brag about how they are stealing our territory and how they have the right to behave so arrogantly, why don't they apologize to the Americans or to someone who is an honorable woman in SE Maja Vukićević voted against their admission, so now they went to Pristina to apologize profusely, etc.," he said.
The delegation of Montenegro in the PSSE voted differently on the draft opinion on the admission of Kosovo to the Council of Europe at the session held on Tuesday. The head of the delegation Maja Vukićević (Democratic People's Party) voted against, a member of the delegation Boris Mugoša (Social Democrats) was in favor, while Vasilije Carapić (Movement Europe Now) was restrained.
DODIK'S POLITICAL SIMULTANEOUS
When it comes to the resolution on Srebrenica, Vučić said that the chances of success in that fight are small. On the other hand, Dodik announced the organization of a protest meeting in Banja Luka today and tomorrow, again denying the genocide in Srebrenica.
"The National Assembly will make decisions, I think that if it comes to a decision based on what is being done without procedures, the RS will leave the decision-making process in BiH, and I don't see any sense in remaining an integral part of BiH. We will seek and regulate our status in such a way that we try to continue on our own. Because, if someone persistently tries to place the blame on one nation, and demands that we live with them, that is really something that is absurd and does not lead to any reconciliation", said Dodik.
The draft Resolution on the genocide in Srebrenica stipulates, among other things, that July 11 every year be marked as an international day of remembrance. The UN General Assembly is supposed to discuss it on May 2. The resolution also condemns the denial of genocide, as well as the glorification of war criminals, while UN member states are encouraged to preserve judicially established facts through educational systems, in order to prevent revisionism and repetition of genocide.
Vučić's and Dodik's "battles" come before the "Easter Council", which Vučić announced after a meeting with Dodik and Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC) Patriarch Porfiri. Vučić then announced that they informed the patriarch "of the gravity of the political situation in which the entire Serbian people find themselves" and asked for the support of the Serbian Orthodox Church. He announced that the governments of Serbia and the RS will prepare a declaration and that "important decisions on the survival of the Serbian people in their hearths and the preservation of the Serbian language and the Cyrillic alphabet" will be made at the meeting.
Political analyst from Belgrade Cvijetin Milivojevic, assesses that when Dodik's political simultaneity is left aside, the relationship of the RS towards the external sovereignty of BiH is not disputed.
"No one will raise the question of the sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina there. You know that the position of today's Serbia is that Bosnia and Herzegovina is a sovereign state within its borders, and that the letter of the Dayton Agreement is being insisted on here," Milivojević told "Vijesta".
Marko Pejović says that he would not be surprised if one of the ZBCG representatives signed Dodik's declaration, but considering that these acts are planned to be submitted to the assemblies in Serbia and the RS, he believes that this will not happen.
Zoran Stojiljković says that according to recent research, only a quarter of respondents in Serbia and Montenegro support the idea of creating a "greater Serbia".
"I don't believe that Vučić, Dodik and the others would dare either to verbal fireworks in which this scenario would be mentioned, or as an unwanted response to the pressures they are exposed to." It seems more likely to me a verbal tirade that does not exceed the limits of 'defense' of the equal status of Serbs and RS in BiH and, at least formally, advocacy for the development of regional cooperation and good-neighborly, even fraternal cooperation, of sovereign, neighboring states, cooperation, which is actually prevented by regional and wider gathered anti-Serb collation of interest, which would humiliate the Serbs", he believes.
In that case, as he added, the usual negative reaction would be limited mainly to those who believe that the RS is a genocidal creation that should be abolished, that is, that Serbia is an eternal prisoner of the dangerous Great Serbian mythomania.
"I don't know in what status, including the chairmanship of the Assembly, without prior political agreements, at least within the ruling majority in Montenegro, the representative of the part of the Serbs in Montenegro would sign anything at the uninational assembly. Of course, this calls into question all the arrangements around the government and introduces it into a broader political crisis," he said.
EVERY ACTION OF ZBCG GOES UNNOTICED
Marko Pejović says that all the events in the past period suggest that every action of the ZBCG coalition goes unnoticed, starting with attending the announcement of the election victory of the Serbian Progressive Party, displaying the tricolor in the office of the head of the Assembly Andrije Mandić, the meeting around Lake Bileć, welcoming Dodik to the Montenegrin parliament, congratulating the unconstitutional RS Day, voting against Kosovo's request for membership in the Council of Europe...
"So, if all this went by almost without any reaction from the PES and the Democrats, I believe that the same will happen with almost certain attendance at the parliament", he believes.
He believes that in the end, the IBAR for Chapters 23 and 24, "will be an excuse for all the permissiveness or inaction of the PES and the Democrats."
"Given that all attention is focused on obtaining IBAR, I doubt that any party will cause political instability, that is, that everything can fall apart by June," he said.
Milivojević believes that, as far as the parliament is concerned, Mandić is in a comfortable position.
"I don't think a question will be asked regarding the principles of foreign policy that he agreed with his partners in the government in Montenegro. Even if he appeared at the parliament, he would not be in disagreement with what is the foreign policy of Montenegro, which is the recognition of Bosnia and Herzegovina in its external borders and, in a way, the Dayton Peace Agreement, because Montenegro was part of the FRY when signed in November 1995," said Milivojević.
AN ATTEMPT AT NATIONAL UNIFICATION WITHOUT TOUCHING BORDERS
He says that the "Easter Assembly" will be a kind of "attempt of national unification without touching the state borders of Serbia, Montenegro and BiH".
"There is no risk and now it is a matter of political assessment of Mandić whether he will appear. It seems to me that he will appear sooner, because he avoided the celebration of the RS Day, which was on January 9. He skilfully dodged it, and here, realistically, there is no reason for it, because, at least as far as I have seen what the platform of those talks is, it will be a story about cultural connection, the Cyrillic alphabet, I don't think it will go one step further. What Dodik is doing is political simultaneity and I also think that Vučić will also be reserved because of that," Milivojević believes.
He says that Mandić's eventual avoidance of the "parliament" would not disrupt his relationship with Vučić.
He reminded that Vučić himself avoids going to the RS Day celebration in recent years, instead sending high-level delegations.
"This is the policy of tactics, which is very often in conflict with the principles of the political party," he said.
Some more radical moves, he says, are possible in case of the possible adoption of the resolution on Srebrenica, but it does not go to the Security Council.
"If the Security Council adopted it, then it would be something that is binding and then it would have some possible repercussions on this part of the former Yugoslavia," said Milivojević.
Striving for good relations does not mean belonging to the "court camarilla"
Stojiljković said that "spin dictators and usurpers of power like Vučić" like to organize competitions for the most beloved and most loyal collaborator in the country and the surrounding area, that is, that they are the authors of the division into safe, not so reliable followers, and opponents from among their "own" people.
"I think that politicians from the ranks of the former Democratic Front, and not only them, well understood that advocating for good relations with Serbia does not mean belonging to an informal court camarilla outside their country. Let me remind you that Montenegro is sovereign, independent and, for me, very important, a civil state and society, which means that there cannot be those in power who question this political formula in any way", said Stojiljković, responding to the issue of "Vijesti" in order to reflect on the ruling majority Mandić's possible presence at the "Easter Assembly" and the signing of Dodik's declaration.
Spajić will delay the reconstruction as long as possible
Pejović doubts that there will be a reconstruction of the Government immediately after receiving IBAR. He believes that it will be postponed "as long as possible".
"During that time, Prime Minister Milojko Spajić will only further strengthen cooperation with all parliamentary actors in different ways, so that at any moment he has substitute deputies who would support him, should he lose the support of one or some of the current parliamentary majority", he assessed.
The reconstruction of the Government, which should include representatives of ZBCG, is planned by the end of the year at the latest, but recently Andrija Mandić requested that it be in June.
The behind-the-scenes actions of Vučić and Đukanović
Milivojević says that Vučić is partly to blame for the divisions in Podgorica regarding the vote for Kosovo's membership in the Council of Europe, recalling that during the attempt to admit Kosovo to UNESCO, Montenegro voted "for" once and "abstained" the next time.
"But this is all the result of behind-the-scenes actions between Vučić and (former President of Montenegro Milo) Đukanović at the time of their great love," said Milivojević.
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