Croatia's policy towards its neighbors will not change significantly, regardless of who will form the government after the elections in which the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) won the most mandates.
When it comes to the policy towards Montenegro, it will not depend on who is in power in Zagreb, but who is in Podgorica, said the international secretary of the opposition Social Democrats (SD) Miloš Đuričković, answering the question about the result of the parliamentary elections held on Wednesday. in Croatia to influence Montenegro and its neighbors.
HDZ triumphed for the third time in a row in the elections, winning 61 mandates. To stay in power, they need at least 15 more (76 in total), which they have already started looking for potential partners. The Social Democratic Party (SDP) of Croatia, which won 42 seats in the Parliament and came second in the elections, is also trying to gain power. And that party started talks with possible allies...
Reminding that the HDZ and the SDP are opposite poles on the political scene of Croatia, Đuričković says that the two parties nevertheless share an opinion on the direction their country should move in, and that they represent an almost identical foreign policy and have the same opinion regarding regional cooperation. . Therefore, he states that whoever forms the government in Zagreb, the policy that Croatia will implement towards Montenegro will be almost - identical.
"Zagreb's policy towards Montenegro will not primarily depend on who sits in Zagreb, but who sits in Podgorica and what positions they take. They (Croatia) will adjust their foreign policy towards us based on that," said Đuričković.
The interlocutor states that, depending on who will form the government, there may eventually be some changes regarding Zagreb's relationship with Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), due, as he said, to a significant number of those who identify themselves as Croats in BiH and who related to Croatia. However, he emphasizes that he does not think that there can be any significant changes.
"... Everyone who came to power, whether HDZ or SDP, adjusted the policy towards BiH to their own interests. What is characteristic and a well-known fact is that the HDZ draws a significant number of votes from the minorities living in BiH, so we could characterize it in the way that the HDZ is much more interested in the internal issues of BiH than, for example, the SDP would be. But those are all nuances...", states Đuričković.
Maja Vukićević, member of the Democratic People's Party (DNP), told "Vijesta" that regardless of who will form the new Croatian government, she does not expect major changes in the relations between Zagreb and Podgorica. He says that he does not think that the elections held on Wednesday will have any major impact on Montenegro.
"It is clear that if we are talking about official state relations, they were at a certain correct level, but they are burdened with several open issues that exist continuously and have not been resolved for a long time. We will see if something will be initiated when it comes to concrete matters that burden interstate relations, that cannot be predicted at this moment", she stated.
In the last two years, relations between Montenegro and Croatia have been burdened the most by the question of ownership of the school ship "Jadran" and the content of the memorial plaque placed in the former Morinj camp.
In August of last year, Zagreb sent a note of protest to Montenegro regarding the commemoration of the 90th birthday of the ship "Jadran", in which Podgorica was accused of "appropriating other people's property".
A new misunderstanding occurred at the beginning of the year, when Croatian Defense Minister Ivan Anušić canceled, during his visit to Montenegro, a meeting with his Montenegrin colleague Dragan Krapović because, as he explained, of Krapović's views on the "Adriatic" and the memorial plaque in the former Morinj camp. Krapović previously stated that Croatia has no right to claim "Jadran" and that the plaque in Morinje should be replaced by another, "with adequate text". After Anušić's move, he said that "Jadran" is "a completely legal and legitimate property of Montenegro", and that this position will not change.
Special attention to Bosnian Croats
Croatian citizens elected representatives in the Parliament last week. As expected, the HDZ won the most mandates, followed by the SDP's Rijeka Pravde coalition and the Homeland Movement. In the 11th constituency, the diaspora, three HDZ members were elected, mostly thanks to the votes of Croatian citizens from Bosnia and Herzegovina. No party/coalition won an absolute majority, so it will be necessary to negotiate to form a majority.
Banja Luka political analyst Tanja Topić does not expect drastic changes, much less a turnaround in Croatian policy towards Bosnia and Herzegovina.
"Previously, we experienced a turnaround in some politicians from Croatia, such as the current president Zoran Milanović, who moved from the left political spectrum to the right and completely changed their attitude towards the Croats in BiH to a paternalistic one. The government led by the HDZ did do a lot for BiH on the European road, but it completely ignored Sarajevo and organized official meetings with the leaders of the HDZ BiH, which it clearly designated as the only 'legitimate representatives of the Croats in BiH'. Regardless of who forms the new government, it seems to me that it will always try to maintain special and one-sided relations with neighboring BiH, that is, special attention will be paid to its own ethnic group in BiH", she points out.
Foreign policy analyst from Croatia Denis Avdagić points out that the election results are somewhere in the margin of expectations according to previously conducted polls. Both HDZ and Rijeka pravde recorded perhaps slightly weaker results, but there are no big surprises. Avdagić believes that it will be very difficult for Milanović to form a majority simply because it would have to be ideologically quite broad, and the first announcements of the party leaders show how difficult and impossible this mission is.
"On the other hand, of course, it is not easy for the HDZ, i.e. the still current Technical Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, considering that the most adequate potential partner is the Homeland Movement, and this creates problems for him in coalition with minorities or complete minorities, that is, specifically with Serbian minority representatives, whom they expressly consider unacceptable in the Homeland Movement", points out Avdagić.
When it comes to Plenković, he believes that for a long time he has cultivated a type of politics that is not populist, and it will be extremely difficult for him personally to enter into combinations that mean any cooperation with populists, and the Homeland Movement is that. He is of the opinion that, in principle, regardless of the Homeland Movement, a very similar policy would remain, which would primarily be created by the prime minister.
"The homeland movement could seek a stronger relationship with the Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but Plenković, in a calm and more restrained way, actually did everything that the more right-wing options, including President Milanović himself, were asking for. He simply did the maximum as far as the Croats themselves were concerned, but he did it in a more diplomatic and correct way, with a lot of things that were done away from the eyes of the public, tension and political confrontation", explains Avdagić and adds that the demands cannot go further than that. what Plenković did as prime minister.
The same applies, he emphasizes, to the possibility of seeking strengthening of border control. When it comes to BiH, Avdagić sums up, he expects continued improvement in relations. But he warns that a good question is how Milanović's further contacts with Milorad Dodik would be viewed and how they would view the Republika Srpska. This, he says, could lead to major tensions.
"As for other countries in the region, I think that relations with Serbia could only be tightened more directly, and that should be realistically expected with the Homeland Movement. For them, it will certainly be one of the targets of political action", says Avdagić and adds that relations with Montenegro are somewhat strained, and this is due to the issue of the school warship "Jadran", which is now being discussed as extremely symbolically important to Croatia.
He is convinced that support for BiH's path to the EU will continue in full with Plenković. He believes that it is fair and correct to say that there was no head of state that pushed BiH so much.
"This Government has done really great things for Bosnia and Herzegovina. In a way, a lot of people would say that this is expected, but we are witnessing the times when, if this is the expectation, it was not always the case", stresses Avdagić and adds that the stability that Plenković's government brings to Croatia, regardless of the coalition partners, it brings equal stability to Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Prof. Dr. Nikola Samardžić from the Faculty of Philosophy of the University of Belgrade believes that "Croatia's turn to the right is a consequence of the failed policy of the European Commission, first of all Ursula von der Leyen and Josep Borel, who retreat in the face of Russian aggression and tolerate illegitimate influences and corruption."
"It would be best for the HDZ not to accept that kind of responsibility of forming a majority with the Homeland Movement and to try to go for new elections. At this moment, Croatia needs to strengthen its political center, in order to benefit everyone, and to ward off malignant influences from the neighborhood. Croatia must not become Orban's Hungary or Vučić's Serbia", believes our interlocutor.
He emphasizes that Bosnia and Herzegovina "is in huge temptations as the central institutions and leaders who are in favor of more centralization are weak while giving in to Putin's players Dodik and (Dragan) Čović".
"The EU failed to include BiH, Croatia and Serbia in the same package of decisions so that BiH would receive more statehood, and Croatia and Serbia would be compensated by joint European integration. The EU ambassadors in Belgrade and Podgorica are not by chance the servants of local leaders and their services, and they are not by chance more useful for the Russian Federation, instead of the EU. It is no longer possible to close any particular or local issue without the active influence of the EC. "Ignoring the periphery, which is supposedly less important, has already cynically left Ukraine to Russian aggression," concludes Prof. Ph.D. Samardzic.
Homeland movement "red scarf" for Serbian politics
HDZ won 61 mandates and needs 15 parliamentary mandates to form a majority government.
The coalition around the SDP and Zoran Milanović won 42 mandates, while eight more parties and coalitions will enter the Parliament, among which the Homeland Movement with 14 mandates and Most with 11 parliamentary seats achieved significant results.
Eight mandates belong to national minorities, and three were won by the Independent Democratic Party of Serbia (SDSS) of Milorad Pupovac.
According to some analysts, HDZ's coalition partner could probably be the Homeland Movement, a party to the right of HDZ, with strong nationalist views. However, even that would not be enough for the majority, and the HDZ could reach an agreement with the representatives of national minorities.
It must be taken into account that a possible coalition of Plenković's party with the Homeland Movement would automatically exclude Pupovč's SDSS, which the president of the Homeland Movement Ivan Penava said, but also added that, apart from the SDSS, he will not go into a coalition with the green-left party Mozemo .
"We will sit down and talk, but we stand firmly by what we communicated. We will not be with the SDSS in any variant, under any conditions, and equally not with the Mozemo party. It is an impossible mission," Penava said in a speech to supporters at the election headquarters.
It is important to remind that the SDSS has been a partner in Prime Minister Plenković's government and has traditionally won three mandates reserved for the Serbian minority, while Mozemo is close to the SDP.
Analysts indicate that the support of the Homeland Movement could be crucial for the formation of the future government, that is, it could determine whether the government will be formed for the third time by the Prime Minister and President of the HDZ Plenković, or the Prime Ministerial candidate of the SDP and the current President of Croatia Milanović.
On the other hand, SDP president Peđa Grbin announced that he will start negotiations on a possible post-election coalition with those parties that announced after the election that they would not enter into a coalition with HDZ.
"The election results are not as we wished, but they showed that the citizens of Croatia want changes and that they are not satisfied with what is happening in Croatia," Grbin said at the election headquarters in Zagreb.
He added that there are days, weeks and maybe months of talks ahead of Croatia, and that these talks will end well, with changes that will make Croatia a better country, "a country without corruption that takes care of its people".
As Dr. Ivan Rimac, political analyst and professor at the Faculty of Law in Zagreb, previously told Deutsche Welle, it is certain that relations between Croatia and Serbia "will continue to be disparate in some sense, because they fluctuate in communication, but very often enter into a sharp communication that often coincides with pre-election periods".
Rimac explained that certain political options cooperated at that time, and that the tightening of relations with Serbia benefits right-wing political options in Croatia, just as certain political structures in Serbia benefit from the tightening of relations with Croatia.
"The fact is that the entry of the Homeland Movement into the government would represent a 'red scarf' for Serbian politics, because they were strongly against the rights of the Serbian ethnic minority in Croatia," said Rimac.
As Davor Đenero, a political analyst, told "Danas" earlier, the HDZ and SDSS coalition was "extremely good and extremely important." At that time, he pointed out to our newspaper that the concept of constitutional patriotism was created within the Serbian National Union (SNZ), and that the SNZ in Croatia understands that it can solve its problems by influencing the executive power.
Dragan Crnogorac, who presented Srpska lista, and whose rhetoric resembles that of the Serbian Progressive Party in Serbia, stood as the opposition to Pupovac in the Croatian parliamentary elections. He did not win a notable result.
Although it is too early to talk about the future relations between Croatia and Serbia, one thing is certain - until now, Croatia has not paid much attention to the provocations coming from Serbia, and the Serbs in Croatia have been protected to a greater extent from the projection of the politics of the Serbian world coming from Belgrade, rather than which they are exposed to in other republics of the former Yugoslavia. Thanks to that, as well as to the Croatian authorities' ignoring of the neighbors' provocations, if they were not reduced, at least the escalation of tensions between the two countries was prevented.
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