Earthquakes with a magnitude above 6,5 (destructive earthquakes) can be expected with great probability in the coming period practically on the entire Montenegrin coast, under the sea and in the immediate hinterland, with the possibility of tectonic ruptures (splits) and deformations of the earth's crust on a larger scale, it was stated in part of the draft of the new Spatial Plan until 2040, which deals with seismic risks.
Excessive construction of questionable quality along the Montenegrin coast, which is the zone with the highest risk of earthquakes, as well as construction in unsuitable and dangerous places, is cited as the biggest problem and seismic risk. It is also indicated that Montenegro is not prepared for cases of stronger earthquakes, that it does not have the necessary legal procedures for its prevention, that it does not have the necessary administrative and human capacities, as well as all the necessary infrastructure.
Lessons from 1979 and Turkey for decision makers
The document lists examples of major earthquakes since the 15th century that occurred on the territory of present-day Montenegro and its immediate surroundings, but also reminds of the last major earthquake of April 15, 1979, in which 35 people died and which had a magnitude 7.
"The experience from the 1979 earthquake with material damages that exceeded four times the gross national income of Montenegro clearly shows that the seismic risk in Montenegro is unacceptably high. The level of seismic risk present is a consequence of the treatment of this issue in the past and in the current seismic safety management policy," the document reads.
The damage of four gross national incomes, for a similar earthquake as that year, would now be worth around 20 billion euros, and could be even higher due to the higher population of the area and suspicions that construction rules were not respected.
The plan also lists "political aspects of earthquake risk management", where politicians and decision-makers are invited to be actively involved in solving problems that increase seismological risks.
"At the moment when warnings from the region (earthquakes in Albania in 2019, Croatia in 2020 and Turkey in 2023) have been clearly observed, it is time for greater political support and commitment to control seismic safety in Montenegro through the strengthening of legal provisions, administrative structure, capacity building and financial programs", the authors of the plan stated.
Chaotic urbanization increased the risks
In particular, the problems in the coastal region, which is the most seismically threatened - intensive urbanization without considering the elementary parameters of sustainability and carrying capacity; increase in the built-up ratio; oversized capacities of residential areas at the expense of regular public needs - "and thus the area reserved for emergency response to an earthquake".
It is also warned against building on the most unfavorable and dangerous places, such as steep and unstable slopes, banks of rivers and streams, places prone to landslides and landslides, places with a high level of groundwater, especially in soft sandy and water-saturated soil.
"In some cases - due to their position, instability, change of existing drainage roads, these settlements and facilities are not only a source of their own insecurity, but they have also permanently endangered previously built or laid facilities. In municipalities with rapid economic development, dynamic urban development often overrides local planning documents, where changes in space occur faster than the planning approach comes into action", the authors of the plan state.
They also point out that inappropriate traffic and other infrastructure "with evident bottlenecks, without alternative possibilities for passage and functioning" are often built in the settlements, which would enable or hinder rescue operations in the event of an earthquake.
When evaluating the existing building stock, they warn that "the seismic safety of the majority of the stock of existing buildings is questionable or insufficient, with an accent on the widely represented illegally built buildings."
Other problems with current buildings that increase the seismic risk are - lack of adequate treatment through urban plans, indiscriminate and uncontrolled selection of terrain for the construction of new buildings, increasingly often within already densely situated existing buildings, insufficient quality control of design and construction, professionally unfounded but already widely the promoted practice of changing the purpose, superstructure and reconstruction of existing buildings, as well as "the recent lack of adequate legal and technical regulations appropriate to modern concepts of seismic evaluation and strengthening of existing buildings".
The most unstable terrains in Igalo
The coastal region, including the Adriatic sea, is the national territory with the highest seismic risk - hazard, but also frequent occurrences of landslides and landslides that are triggered during earthquakes.
"The most unstable terrains are located in Igalo, i.e. the eastern part of Herceg Novi, in Meljina, Zelenica, and especially the entire coastal stretch from Kumbor to Baošić, Bijela and Kamenara, also the immediate hinterland of the settlement of Sv. Sunday. The most unstable terrains in the hinterland of Kotor are at the foot of the Kotor side above the coastal belt of Dobrota and from Plagenta, including the most densely built coastal part of Kotor and the Old Town. "Extremely unstable terrains in this area are located even above the Muo settlement and in Donji Stolivo," the document states.
It is also emphasized that the Port of Kotor, as the second most important port in Montenegro, has a high level of seismic risk, both due to the vulnerability of buildings and docks, and potential deformations of the seabed in the Bay of Kotor.
In the area of Tivat, extremely unstable and risky terrains are in Lepetani, partially in Opatovo, Seljanovo and Račica, as well as to a certain extent near Bijela on the coast of Krtol, while Trsteno bay also belongs to terrains with unstable locations in places.
The most endangered parts of Budva
"In the part of the Budva-Petrovica coast, the most endangered are the built-up parts of the coastal belt of the Budva shell, the coastal belt of Bečić, Kamenovo, Pržno, Miločer, Sveti Stefan, Perazić dol and Petrovac. Seismic instability is expressed in the coastal part of Jaz and Buljarica, and there are still unstable terrains between Smoko vijenc, Režević and Crvena glavica (open skating rink)," the document states.
This part of the Budva municipality has problems, such as indiscriminate construction and overloading in numerous locations of potentially unstable terrain.
"The problem is exacerbated by the uncontrolled overall treatment of groundwater as well as the surface water drainage system. The problems of intensive urbanization, housing density, unresolved traffic corridors and access roads, lack of free space and illegal construction are generators of a very high level of seismic risk," warn the authors of the plan.
Bar and Ulcinj have the highest level of danger
The southernmost coastal zone of Bar and Ulcinj has the highest level of natural danger from earthquakes in Montenegro.
"Seismically, the most threatened zones are in the alluvial plain of the Barsko polje, as well as the landslides between Ratac and Sutomor and towards Veliki Pijesk. The activation of the Ratac landslide in an earthquake is potentially a great risk for road and rail traffic. The coast of Volujica and the wharves of the largest Montenegrin Port of Bar, built on a bank of unstable terrain subject to subsidence. In recent decades, the problem of intensive and unplanned construction in the settlements between Bar and Ulcinj has significantly increased the seismic risk in this zone. In the hinterland of the coast, on the southwestern slopes of Rumija and Sutorman, mass landslides and block landslides are possible," the document states.
In the municipality of Ulcinj, a smaller area of instability exists in Valdanos, while the area that includes part of the Ulcinj polje and Solana, the shores of Bojana, Velika plaja, Donji and Gornji Štoj has a moderate to high liquefaction potential (change in the mechanical properties of the soil resulting in submergence) - which represents a potentially large seismic risk in tourist development.
Lower level of risk in the central and northern regions
The central region of Montenegro has a lower seismological risk.
"Generally, deeper earthquakes are associated with the presumed first-order fault with the direction of extension along the Zeta-Skadar Depression and towards NIkšić," the document states.
The northern region has the least potential for devastating earthquakes.
"Although the seismic hazard in the Northern region is lower, according to all regulations this area must be treated as seismically active. The processes of stretching of the present geotectonic zones and subzones are accompanied by earthquakes of lesser strength", according to the authors of the plan.
The zone around the Piva reservoir, where seismic activity has been increasing since its formation, is cited as a risk area.
Poverty affects poorer construction and greater risk of earthquake consequences
The plan also states that there are social aspects that can cause greater seismic risks, such as migrations that have drastically increased the number of inhabitants in certain zones, poverty that increases illegal construction and reduces the quality of individual construction, poor education as well as a decline in professional ethics in control planning and construction. They also say that they rarely organize initiatives aimed at education and raising public awareness about earthquakes.
There are also economic aspects that affect the greater consequences of earthquakes, such as pressures for more construction, but also the lack of subsidies that would increase the quality of construction, because earthquake protection is expensive but is in the public interest.
"No administrative level recognizes the need to define and implement a subsidy program aimed at earthquake protection and strengthening structures. While it can justifiably be said that the strengthening of existing buildings is an economically demanding task - it can be confirmed for the quality of new construction projects that investing in their seismic safety is profitable many times over. Cost-benefit analyzes would be of particular importance for the planning of the most important infrastructure facilities," the document stated.
Excessive concentration of buildings with seismic risk is a dangerous problem
They also point out that there are numerous problems in the field of spatial and urban development due to uneven demographic trends and unbalanced development of settlements.
"There is an excessive concentration of buildings in urban areas, especially residential buildings. Overbuilding of certain zones results from oversized planning frameworks and insufficiently verified urban planning criteria. This led to the formation of city zones in which it is not possible to provide adequate traffic and communal facilities, necessary public spaces with certain social amenities, parking spaces, appropriate green areas. In the coastal region, with a pronounced seismic risk, this represents a serious development problem. "Urban centers fail to establish urban control, and on the other hand, they condition the slower development of rural settlements," the document states.
The authors also say that the illegal and unplanned construction of the settlement in the previous period had a negative impact on the spatial arrangement of the buildings and their function in the space.
"In addition to the illegal appropriation of the right to dispose of and use land, avoiding payment of fees for the use of public infrastructure, illegal construction usurps space and prevents quality planning of social, public facilities and infrastructure. Technical, traffic and ecological requirements, environmental protection requirements are not respected, which leads to the formation of unsafe for life and spatially and urbanistically unacceptable built structures and carries a risk in terms of the functionality and safety of buildings, especially in conditions of high seismic risk," the document says. .
Change the laws, a bad division of roles can have unintended consequences
The plan also includes several expert criticisms of the Law on Spatial Planning and Building Construction, which governs key areas for the prevention of earthquake consequences and seismic risk control.
They propose to prescribe the construction of appropriate types of seismic foundations, to determine the urban-technical conditions that should contain the parameters of microseismic zoning if the location is included in it, to specify the method of proving the seismic safety of illegal buildings and to precisely define the control mechanisms of design and construction .
"The Law on Protection and Rescue should more clearly define the obligations of state authorities to analyze the effects of a devastating earthquake. The imprecise wording (of Article 40) can be misinterpreted, and in addition, not all entities that should be included are recognized. The strategy for disaster risk reduction with a dynamic plan of activities for the implementation of the strategy for the period 2018 - 2023 was insufficiently oriented towards the prevention of the risk of earthquakes. The activity plan determined funds for the national assessment of seismic risk for the purposes of spatial planning, which was not implemented," the document stated.
They also point out that the existing administrative framework does not create a unified and effective seismic risk control policy, as well as that a poor administrative division of roles can have unwanted consequences.
"It is necessary to form a single administrative body that would clearly define and coordinate the individual sectors (e.g. construction, traffic...) and then control the execution of the seismic risk reduction policy both in space planning and in design and construction control," the authors point out. plan.
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