Serious demographic changes are taking place in Montenegro, and the state is doing almost nothing to tackle the challenges.
Unofficial data he obtained Center for Investigative Journalism of Montenegro (CIN-CG) show that in the decade from 2011 to 2021, the country was inhabited by a little over 66 thousand mostly foreigners, and that over 70 thousand Montenegrin citizens left it. It is not known how many of them still live permanently abroad, without having registered their residence here, because there are no official statistics.
The data we obtained from the Ministry of the Interior (MUP) show that after 2021, the number of foreigners in the country has increased significantly and that there are currently more than 90 of them.
"I left Montenegro in search of a better life. I've been in America for almost five years now," says the guy who went to the USA through the Work and Travel program for CIN-CG.
It is "in the dark" there, and life in that country, he says, is drastically different from life in Montenegro.
"Everyone is fighting just to make as much money as possible," he says briefly.
His biggest concern is not to get sick, because he once had a problem with his teeth and he paid thousands and thousands of dollars just for examinations and treatment. So he had to give everything he saved, working hard, to the doctors.
He is just one of many who left Montenegro and may never return.
Migration is a complex social phenomenon, a demographer explains for CIN-CG Miroslav Doderović. The causes can be economic, social, political and demographic, as well as ecological and climatic. Economic factors refer to the search for better work opportunities, higher earnings or stability, while social factors include the search for a better quality of life, education or health services. Political causes mainly refer to war events, authoritarian regimes or human rights violations. People left Montenegro for all these reasons.
In the research of the Center for Democratic Transition (CDT) and the Society of Statisticians and Demographers of Montenegro (DSDCG) from 2023 "While we wait for a more responsible government: Why Montenegro does not care about its own population", it is stated that some official estimates show that the decrease in the number of inhabitants (depopulation of the country) continued in 2022, when the largest difference in the number of immigrants and emigrants was recorded in the last 20 years. That year, the number of inhabitants decreased by 1.998 people, or by approximately the same percentage as in the pandemic period, but not because of increased mortality, but because of a greater population outflow. In that year, natural growth was also negative in 17 out of 25 municipalities.
According to the preliminary results of the Population Census in 2023, 633.158 inhabitants live in Montenegro. If the number of foreigners is subtracted, then the number of citizens is about 545 thousand inhabitants. This figure best describes how many people have left since the 2011 census, when there were about 620 inhabitants in Montenegro, and only a few thousand foreigners.
Montenegro could have about 25 thousand inhabitants in 540 years
If the state does not take a more serious approach to solving the problem of population outflow, in 25 years it could have 78 thousand fewer inhabitants than in the 2011 Census, explains Doderović.
"This roughly corresponds to the number of inhabitants in 1971," he warns.
From a demographic perspective, he states, the trend of population outflow from areas rich in natural and economic resources causes various negative changes in the labor market, the disappearance of certain economic activities, lack of experts, reduction of investments, closure or relocation of companies and public institutions, pressures on pension, health and social protection system because there are fewer and fewer workers who finance these funds, welfare decline and greater inequality...
Montenegro, highlights for CIN-CG sociologist Biljana Radović Fuštić, has had a high rate of emigration for decades, but also a high rate of internal migration, which also represents a serious problem.
"I moved from Bijelo Polje to Podgorica six years ago, because I wanted to continue my education, and there was no faculty there that I wanted to enroll in," the young student told CIN-CG.
That city is not a promising environment for young people and many of her friends also left, either abroad or to other cities in Montenegro, because they could not find any work.
"I was dissatisfied and unhappy. The fog in the winter period, combined with free time and a couple of streets where everything is the same, made me leave as soon as I had the chance", says our interlocutor.
According to Monstat data analyzed by CIN-CG, in almost a decade, from 2014 to 2022, almost four thousand more people moved out of Bijelo Polje than immigrated. About three thousand people from Nikšić, about one thousand from Cetinje, about two thousand each from Beran and Pljevlja, about 500 from Andrijevica, about 1.300 from Rožaj, and about 800 people from Mojkovac. It is interesting, for example, that even from Šavnik, the population moved away in large numbers until 2021, and that then, in 2022, just when local elections were held in that city, suddenly 300 more people settled than left.
It cannot be known for sure where exactly all these people went. Some of them probably abroad, and some to other cities in Montenegro. It is interesting that in eight years about 2.300 people moved to Budva, and almost 10 more people moved to Podgorica than left. Both foreigners and our citizens participate in these migrations.
Many of them are certainly the workforce that Montenegro lacks, and that employers from abroad are looking for.
Currently, about 25 workers are missing
CIN-CG was told by the Employment Service of Montenegro (ZZZCG) that both in our country and abroad, engineers and IT specialists, metal workers and electricians, hotel and restaurant staff, medical doctors, nurses, housewives, carers are in short supply. elderly people, workers in the field of mechatronics, automation techniques, experts in sanitary technology and heating and air conditioning technology, plumbers, electrical technicians...
At the moment, Doderović points out, the Montenegrin economy lacks about 25 thousand workers, especially in the fields of tourism, construction and agriculture.
Montenegro does not even have enough medical staff. Thus, according to some earlier research by the Institute for Public Health (IJZCG), about 150 doctors are missing, but there are no precise data on how many of them have left public health in the past years, nor how many have come to work here.
Radović Fuštić points out that the question arises as to what Montenegro has done to protect its population?
"We are witnessing that the high rate of immigration from the east, partly because of war conflicts, partly because of investment projects, has put our citizens in an unenviable position. This is particularly visible when it comes to the real estate market on the coast," she points out.
In the 2060 MONSTAT research "Projections of the population of Montenegro until 2014 with a structural analysis of the population of Montenegro", it is predicted that in the next two decades, that is, until 2041, the number of immigrants to the coastal and central regions would continue to increase. as well as the departure of the population from the northern part of the country.
Montenegro is also on the threshold of deep demographic age, it is warned in the research "While we wait for a more responsible government: Why Montenegro does not care about its own population". The share of the population under the age of 14 (which has 17,9 percent) is almost equal to the population over 65 (16,5 percent)... In two decades, the share of the population under the age of 14 decreased from 21 percent to 17,9 percent, that is, from 128,2 thousand to 110,2 thousand, while in the same period, the participation of the population of 65+ increased from 12 to 16 percent, this study says.
The population is getting older, especially in the north
The aging of society is particularly pronounced in municipalities in the north, sociologist Radović Fuštić points out for CIN-CG.
"If economic development is not distributed evenly across all three regions, the current situation in which the aging population creates pressure on the social system - pension fund, health care, social assistance..." will only be prolonged.
Developing policies that support families also encourages the birth rate, says Radović Fuštić, and it is precisely the distribution of economic development that leads to an improvement in the environment in which young people will separate from their parents earlier than is the case now, when, according to various studies, they usually do so only later in the 30th year.
"The population category of 80 and over is twice as large compared to the year 2000 in Montenegro. The number of elderly people (65 and over) who are not working is increasing significantly compared to the working population (from 15 to 65)," Doderović points out.
The average age in Montenegro is about 40 years. However, this demographer says, it is five years lower than the average of the European Union (EU), where Italy and Germany have the oldest population (48 and 46). The youngest population compared to the European average is in the candidate countries for the EU - Turkey (33) and Kosovo (30).
Some countries are already facing serious consequences that come with an aging population. So recently in Japan, which has one of the oldest populations in the world, several major Japanese diaper manufacturers decided to stop making baby diapers and instead focus on the adult market. That country, by the way, has been implementing various national programs for a long time, the purpose of which is to "attract" the younger population. Some of these programs relate to the creation of favorable opportunities for solving the housing issue.
Japan, by the way, is not the only one with problems with a low birth rate. This is also the case in China, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea, which has the lowest birth rate in the world.
Since 2018, the number of Russians has increased fivefold, Turkish citizens three times more
The number of immigrants is rapidly increasing in Montenegro. This trend started back in the 2000s, and it intensified especially in 2022, when there will be a significant influx of citizens of Ukraine and Russia, due to the war.
Data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs obtained by CIN-CG show that most foreign citizens, apart from the countries of the region, come from Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Germany, China, Kazakhstan, Italy, Israel, France, Moldova, Philippines, Belarus, Azerbaijan , Austria, Australia, Great Britain and Switzerland.
From 2018 to 2024, the number of Russian citizens in Montenegro is almost five times higher. In 2018, there were 5.151, and currently there are 24.775. The number of immigrants from Turkey tripled in the same period - in 2018 there were 3.629, and now 10.859. It is the same with citizens of the Philippines. In the same period, the number of immigrants from China decreased more than five and a half times, which was mostly influenced by the completion of works on the highway, which were built by the Chinese.
Doderović points out the fact that six and a half thousand foreign children are enrolled in Montenegrin schools and kindergartens in the 2023/24 school year.
The largest number of migrants, i.e. 23 percent of them, are between 20 and 29 years old, according to the research "While we wait for a more responsible government: Why Montenegro does not care about its own population".
These data should warn the state, Doderović believes, to take much more account of this issue.
"Russians are leaving their country due to mobilization and political instability, residents of Turkey due to political and economic reasons, and a large number of Turkish companies are opening in Montenegro. It is clear that now almost one seventh of the new population is from abroad," he states.
According to sociologist Radović Fuštić, foreigners can bring new capital, technological knowledge and entrepreneurial skills, and this is useful for the development of new industries and business sectors.
"Immigration can lead to cultural changes and the enrichment of society with different perspectives, customs and languages".
However, these cultural processes can also cause social tensions, especially if there is resistance to change or fear of losing identity.
"It is important to develop empathy towards foreigners and enable them to stay in the country without interruption", she believes and cites an example of good practice - in Switzerland, the authorities provide continuous support to migrants in adaptation, especially when they need to settle in a specific canton.
The large influx of immigrants to Montenegro, often very wealthy, created a large gap that is most visible in the southern and central regions of the country. Due to the unrealistic increase in the prices of renting apartments and houses, our citizens pay huge rents, and many cannot even dream of buying an apartment.
On Facebook, someone advertised an apartment for rent in Podgorica of less than 50 square meters at a price of 700 euros. The ad attracted a lot of comments, mostly from outraged citizens.
"According to this, a man should have a salary of over a thousand euros to be able to live. "You should have indicated that you issue only to rich Russians and Ukrainians," reads one comment.
One of the reasons for the increased sale of real estate to foreigners is the economic citizenship program.
"During the period of inflation in the euro zone, as was the case last year and the year before last, many decide to buy real estate as one of the safer ways to ensure that their money will not lose value. Buying real estate in Montenegro is interesting for foreigners both for living here and for investing. In addition to the mild Mediterranean climate and natural beauty, real estate prices in Montenegro are still lower than in other European Mediterranean countries. The coast has always been attractive, but in recent years other parts of the country have also been attractive - especially Kolašin", says Doderović.
Foreigners can obtain temporary residence based on the purchase of residential real estate in Montenegro. Property tax varies from municipality to municipality.
"After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, a large number of Ukrainians and Russians applied for temporary residence, but the number of Western Europeans who want temporary residence in Montenegro is also constantly increasing, especially in the last three years," Doderović points out and notes that Montenegro Gora must have a clear policy for managing such situations in order to improve the state of public finances.
Currently, 26 thousand foreign companies are operating
According to the latest data submitted by the Directorate for Inspection Affairs to CIN-CG, 26 companies founded by foreigners are currently operating in Montenegro. Most of those with ownership structure of foreigners, almost more than a quarter, are registered in Podgorica and Budva.
The largest number of companies were founded by citizens of Turkey, Russia, Serbia, Ukraine, Germany... Different companies are opening that deal with wholesale and retail trade, professional, scientific and technical activities, information and communications and IT, construction, administrative and auxiliary service activities, accommodation and food services, repair of motor vehicles and others.
According to the data of demographer Doderović, the most numerous companies are currently engaged in non-specialized wholesale trade and there are about 3.500 of them, followed by consulting activities related to business and other management - there are about 3.400 of them. There are about three thousand companies operating in the field of construction, and about 1.600 restaurants and mobile catering establishments. Over 1.500 companies deal with computer programming.
The growth in the number of new companies whose founders are foreign citizens has led to a large number of employees who are not citizens of Montenegro. This, warns Doderović, can have both positive and negative consequences for the economy.
"Foreigners who come to Montenegro must look for development and creative potential, because they influence the labor market, investment and the growth of the gross domestic product. The low tax rate is an excellent reason for opening a company in Montenegro", says the demographer.
Sociologist Radović Fuštić believes that the new legal solutions should remove all administrative barriers and create conditions for foreigners to solve their status issues, including work and employment, in a unified procedure, with one body - a specialized state agency.
"It is necessary to work on the accuracy of records on foreigners and issued documents for all statuses, faster and more efficient control of competent inspection authorities and direct access to records from competent state authorities is necessary," she points out.
However, care must be taken to protect their own labor force and their own entrepreneurs, which all serious countries do.
CIN-CG addressed the Government of Montenegro with questions about how the state deals with all these demographic changes, what it is doing to prevent a large outflow of the population and how it relates to the increasing immigration of foreigners. Until the publication of this research, we have not received any answers.
Regulated countries implement a series of measures to solve the problem of labor shortages within their own population, but also those that attract foreigners with certain skills and thus stimulate the growth of the gross national product. EU countries, for example, have various types of legal options that allow foreigners to settle and live decently there, such as the EU Blue Card (work and residence permit), as well as some other unique permits. Likewise, they take care of their citizens, who are inevitably affected by immigration, by investing in education, healthcare, entrepreneurship... Montenegro does not think about it yet, nor does it have a national strategy that would deal with the issue of the impact of demographic changes on its development. There is no discussion among the key actors about this problem, which, primarily due to the outflow of the population, seriously threatens to threaten the very foundations of society.
First in the region in the number of rejected American visas
The number of denied American visas to Montenegrin citizens is increasing. That number is growing year by year. Thus, in 2023, as many as 43 percent of visas were rejected at the US Embassy in Podgorica. This can be seen from the official data of the government of the United States of America. That is ten percent more than in 2022.
Such a large number of rejected visas could be due to the fact that an increasing number of Montenegrin citizens remain illegally in America, but also because the Government of Montenegro has not resolved some administrative requirements requested by the USA. The problem is not only in refused visas, but also in the fact that Montenegrin citizens, even when they are granted entry to the USA, are issued visas for a significantly shorter period than residents of other countries in the region. Thus, Montenegrin citizens are usually issued a tourist visa for a maximum of three years, while Serbian citizens, for example, are issued for ten years. It's the same with students. Montenegrin students, whose faculties last for four three years, have to apply for a visa every two years, while in Serbia they usually get a visa for the entire period of study.
Compared to the countries of the region, Montenegro has the highest percentage of rejected visas.
In 2023, Croatia has the lowest rejection rate, around nine percent. Serbia about 16 and a half percent, and Bosnia and Herzegovina about 18 and a half percent. North Macedonia about 29 percent, Kosovo about 30 percent, and Albania 31 percent.
It is interesting that this rate was higher in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2022 - in Serbia it was about 19 and a half percent, and in Bosnia and Herzegovina about 20 percent.
Apart from Montenegro, in Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia and Croatia, the rates of visa refusals have increased since 2022.
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