Montenegro has great potential for the production of electricity from offshore wind farms, and it should start as soon as possible with the preparation of legal, technical and other prerequisites for their construction and inclusion in the national power system. The production of clean energy from renewable sources is the future, offshore wind power technology is developing very quickly, and an increasing number of oil and gas companies in the world are using their great experience from the so-called offshore industry to join and even lead this growing trend in world energy.
This is what he said in an interview with "Vijesti" mr Miloš Bogdanović from Kotor, who recently defended his master's thesis "Assessment of the potential of offshore wind power construction in Montenegro" at the Maritime Faculty in that city. That master's thesis is also the basis of the scientific work "Winds of Change: A Study on the Resource Viability of Offshore Wind Energy in Montenegro" by Bogdanović and professor of the Maritime Faculty dr. Spiro Ivošević just performed together in the renowned international scientific journal "MDPI energies".
Production potential
"The research in this paper identified an area of 766,598 km2, in the southern part of the Montenegrin part of the Adriatic Sea, which is estimated to be suitable for the construction of an offshore wind farm. It is about the water area south of Ulcinj, just along the sea border of Montenegro and Albania. This area is partly in the territorial sea of Montenegro, and a larger part of it is in the so-called the exclusive economic zone to which our country has the right according to international conventions. In accordance with the criteria defined by the World Bank organization - ESMAP, the estimated technical potential for electricity production on the identified area is 2.299,794 megawatts (MW). Of the total estimated technical potential, 2.034,48 MW can be valorized using floating structures because it is located in the water area where the sea depth is over 60 meters, 126,759 MW can be valorized using fixed structures in the part of the water area where the sea depth is 50 meters, and 138,555 MW using the so-called jacket of fixed structures, at a sea depth of 50 to 60 meters", emphasizes Bogdanović.
He is a graduate in marine engineering who, as an engine manager, sailed for 16 years on MSC company's container ships, i.e. special so-called AHTS vessels for work in the offshore oil and gas industry, i.e. the offshore wind farm of Swire Pacific Offshore from Singapore. After his naval career, Bogdanović worked in the Hydrocarbons Administration of Montenegro and was involved in research projects for possible oil and gas deposits in the Montenegrin seabed, which were carried out by oil companies from Italy, Russia and Greece in the past years. Rich professional experience from the offshore industry and global trends in energy inspired Bogdanović to enter into a complex pioneering project of research and assessment of the potential that Montenegro has for the production of electricity from wind generators installed at sea on fixed or floating structures.
"Oil and gas are the past, and the future is clean energy from renewable sources. Therefore, it should not be surprising that some of the world's leading oil and gas companies, such as the Norwegian Equinor, are among the leaders and largest investors in the development of offshore wind farms. Technology in that area is progressing extremely fast, the prices of equipment which are now relatively high are slowly but surely falling because more and more companies from various parts of the world are involved in the development, construction and production of large wind generators and other equipment needed for offshore power plants, and consequently they are gradually falling and operating costs for their epoxpoatation, that is, the so-called leveled price of electrical energy produced by these power plants", emphasizes Bogdanović, adding that until a few years ago the American General Electric, the Danish Vestas and the German Siemens held almost the entire market of large wind generators, and now they have increasingly fierce and serious competition from Chinese manufacturers of this equipment, primarily MingYang .
More powerful generators at sea than those on land
"These are much larger, more efficient and stronger generators than those on land-based wind farms. For example, the generators at VE Krnovo have a power of 2,75 MW, and most of those that are now being installed on offshore wind farms have a power of 15 MW, while MingYang has meanwhile made a wind generator with a power of even 18 MW. According to the manufacturer's data, the 14 MW GE Haliade-X wind generator, during its one rotation of the rotor, produces an amount of electricity equivalent to the amount of energy consumed by an average household in the United Kingdom during two days," explains Bogdanović.
Such strong wind generators also have blades of large dimensions, so the length of one leg of their three-bladed propellers ranges from 107 to 118 meters. Taking into account the minimum height above sea level of the tower on which these wind generators are mounted, which ranges from 135 to 151 meters, the tip of the blade during rotation reaches the highest height above the sea of over 260 meters. At the lowest point, the top of the blade is at a height of 25 to 30 meters above the sea, which is enough to avoid contact between the top of the rotor blade and the water surface, i.e. so that the tops of the waves would safely pass under the rotor blade. By the way, the maximum wave height on the Adriatic recorded during the long-lasting stormy south was 10,8 m, and it is estimated that the return hundred-year height of the largest wave on the Adriatic is 13,5 meters.
Wind generators of such imposing dimensions are mounted permanently in the sea at shallower depths, by direct laying or fixing to the seabed. Some of the constructions that are used are directly derived from the offshore oil industry, as well as other types of constructions that are used for floating wind farms that can only be installed at sea depths greater than 60 meters. At the end of 2022, four larger floating wind farms with a capacity of more than 30 MW were operating in the world. The largest among them is Hywind Tampen with 11 wind generators with a total power of 88 MW, which is installed in the Atlantic about 140 kilometers from the Norwegian coast, at sea depths of 260 to 300 meters. Behind the project of that power plant, which is intended to supply electricity to several oil platforms operating in the Snorre and Gullfaks offshore oil fields, is a consortium of oil companies led by the Norwegian Equinor. Hywind Tampen is also a pioneer in that instead of steel, it uses concrete for its underwater spar structure that allows the wind generator to float. This further reduces the costs of construction and maintenance of these power plants.
That floating wind farms are very resistant objects is shown by the example of the Hywind Scotland power plant, which was put into operation in 2017 in the North Sea, about 25 kilometers from Aberdeen in Scotland. In December of that year, this wind farm successfully withstood wind gusts of 160 km/h and a wave height of 8,2 meters, while it was shut down for safety reasons, and after the weather conditions improved, it automatically returned to production.
By the way, due to the fact that they are built and installed at sea where there are no obstacles to the movement of the wind, offshore wind farms have a degree of utilization of 42 to 55 percent, which is significantly higher than land wind farms where the coefficient is 30 to 35 percent.
The first float released six years ago
For his master's thesis on an area that is completely unknown in Montenegro, bearing in mind that the world's first floating wind farm, Hywind Scotland, was put into operation only six years ago, Bogdanović made an interpolation of many hydrographic, meteorological and oceanographic data. The research of his master's thesis is based on the analysis of the GWA database, which, in addition to historical data of mean wind speeds, also uses mathematical models to generate output values of mean annual wind speeds. With this, he identified the water area in the territorial sea and the exclusive economic zone of Montenegro in which the average annual wind speed is at least 7 meters per second. According to the data of the World Bank and its organization ESMAP (Energy Sector Management Assistance Program), this average annual minimum wind speed on the offshore vision where the rotor hub of the wind generator is installed is considered sustainable from a technical point of view for the construction of offshore wind farms.
"Through our research, we have identified an area of water area of 766,598 km2, in the southern part of the Montenegrin part of the Adriatic Sea, which is estimated to be suitable for the construction of an offshore wind farm. The estimated total technical potential of the offshore wind farm of 2.299,794 MW is 2,18 times greater than the sum of all electricity production capacities on the mainland of Montenegro, which amounted to 2022 MW at the end of 1.053,044. For the sake of comparison, I would like to emphasize that the total installed capacity of offshore wind power plants in Denmark, which is one of the leaders in this field, in 2023 amounts to 2.300 MW," said Bogdanović.
He added that more detailed research, especially bathymetric research, should give an answer as to which types of fixed or floating construction would be used for part of that potential Montenegrin large marine power plant in its shallower or deeper area. The prospective area for wind power plants is located at the shortest distance from the mainland at 1,4 kilometers from Cape Đeran near Ulcinj, and the farthest point is 47,8 kilometers from the coast.
"As 88% of the identified area is located at sea depths greater than 60 meters, the valorization of the potential at these depths requires the application of modern technologies of floating wind farms, which were first commercially applied in 2017 in Scotland at the Hywind Scotland wind farm. The remaining part of the identified area (up to a depth of 60 m) can be valorized by using fixed supporting structures, which have been successfully used in the world since 1991", explains Bogdanović, adding that the marine power plant also involves the installation of a floating distribution plant that will produce the electricity under the sea transfer by cable to the receiving substation on the coast.
Noise wouldn't be a problem
According to him, preliminary estimates speak of a utilization rate of that power plant of 43 percent. The negative impacts of the power plant would be minimal because it is located far from the coast, so noise would not be a problem, there would be no release of harmful substances, and the only significant negative consequence would be that the water area that would be covered by the power plant would become unavailable for fishing because around such structures on the sea cannot trawl. After the installation of the power plant, there would probably be changes in the navigation regime of ships going to or departing from the Port of Bar.
"Montenegro, therefore, has exceptional potential for the development of offshore wind farms, especially floating ones, bearing in mind the experience in Europe, where 80% of the total offshore wind potential is located at sea depths greater than 60 m. Our country is significantly behind the development of offshore wind farms, especially if you take into account the fact that the first offshore wind farm was built back in 1991 in Denmark. Production from renewable sources enables direct access to clean and safe energy, whereby Montenegro now has a significant problem in the structure of electricity production, because approximately 40% of its energy (in 2023, 38%) is generated by burning coal. In the energy development strategy until 2030, which was adopted by the Government in 2014, the coastal areas of Montenegro, along with the hills around Nikšić, were recognized as suitable locations for the exploitation of wind potential. The recommendations of the strategy regarding wind energy are primarily related to the measurement of wind strength, the preparation of wind potential studies, as well as the development of wind farms on land and sea. The identified area, which is estimated to be suitable for the construction of an offshore wind farm, covers seven blocks, which are defined by the decisions of the Government of Montenegro for the needs of exploration and production of hydrocarbons. Blocks that are estimated to have the necessary potential are: 4118-10, 4118-15, 4119-1, 4119-2, 4119-6, 4119-7 and 4119-11" - said Bogdanović, adding that Montenegro, that in order to use this potential properly, it must immediately start working on completing and innovating the currently insufficient legal framework and conducting more detailed and long-term meteorological measurements.
"Offshore wind farms are something that requires longer preparations and time. It took Scotland 14 years from the initial idea to the construction of the Hywind Scotland floating wind farm, so our eventual offshore wind farm could at best be operational around 2040," believes this expert, emphasizing that the neighbors are already working on it, so the Croatian oil company In 2026, the company Ina plans to start building a wind farm in the northern part of the Croatian Adriatic, with a total power of 300 MW. Also in the northern part of the Adriatic near Ravenna, the Italian oil company Saipem plans to build two wind farms with a total capacity of 600 MW.
Everything works automatically
Wind generators automatically start producing electricity when the wind speed reaches the lower limit value of the mean wind speed measured at the height of the rotor hub during a period of 10 minutes, which for a 15 MW generator is usually 3 m/s. If the wind speed continues to increase and reaches the upper limit value of the mean wind speed at the height of the rotor hub (for a 15 MW wind turbine it is usually 30 m/s) during a period of 10 minutes, the rotor blades are rotated to the air braking position and the wind turbine is automatically switched off with networks. When favorable weather conditions are established, the wind generator automatically activates itself and continues producing electricity.
Expensive, but the cost of construction is gradually falling
Floating wind farms are currently quite expensive production facilities to build because they cost an average of 5,3 million euros per megawatt of power. By way of comparison, fixed offshore wind farms are built at an average price of 2,5 million euros per MW, while the construction of wind generators on land costs 1,2 million euros per MW. However, costs are falling rapidly.
"The costs of construction of floating wind farms in 2019, compared to 2009, decreased by 86%. It is expected that the construction costs of wind farms using floating structures will decrease significantly by 2028 and that they will become fully price competitive with fixed offshore wind farms", says Bogdanović.
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