Sergei Shoigu, Russia's defense minister, is trying to send a message that nothing unusual is happening since his deputy was arrested on corruption charges. However, the spread of the scandal does not bode well for him either, and it is considered a move by a rival clan to weaken his power, Reuters writes.
At first glance, the timing of Tuesday's arrest of Timur Ivanov, 48, one of Shoigu's 12 deputies, was unexpected, at a time when Russia is at war in Ukraine and authorities have declared disparaging the military a crime punishable by prison.
Accusations that he used corruption to finance a lifestyle far beyond his means, leveled against Ivanov by the anti-corruption foundation of the late opposition politician Alexei Navalny, have been in the public sphere for more than a year with no apparent consequences.
Yet this week, state television suddenly showed Russians a bewildered Ivanov - who denies guilt - standing in uniform in a clear plastic courtroom cage like the one that many of the Kremlin's enemies have found themselves in before him.
Russian political analysts, including some former insiders, say his arrest shows how the war is shaping an internal struggle between "clans" vying for wealth and influence in Russia's aggressively competitive political system.
Clans - alliances of like-minded officials or businessmen - gather around themselves the military, intelligence and police agencies, the military-industrial complex, and also include a group of people from President Vladimir Putin's native St. Petersburg who have known him personally for many years, according to a Reuters analysis. .
"Someone in the elite did not like the fact that Shoigu became stronger," said Tatyana Stanovaya, a senior associate at the Carnegie Russia Center.
"This does not come from Putin, but from people close to Putin who believe that Shoigu has exaggerated. It is simply a fight against someone and a ministry that has become too powerful and an attempt to balance the situation," she told Reuters.
Abbas Galyamov, a former Kremlin speechwriter now branded a "foreign agent" by authorities, also sees the arrest as an attack on Shoigu that will weaken him.
"Ivanov is one of the closest people to Shoigu. "His arrest before the appointment of a new government suggests that the current chances of this minister to remain in office are rapidly declining," he said.
Ivanov was arrested as a result of an investigation by the counterintelligence unit of the Federal Security Service (FSB), according to Russian state media.
Lucrative military contracts
It is the highest-profile corruption case since Putin sent troops to Ukraine in 2022. State media reported that Shoigu had removed Ivanov from office.
The scandal comes just two weeks before Putin is to be inaugurated for a fifth presidential term and ahead of an expected cabinet reshuffle next month, in which Shoigu's job could, in theory, be open, according to Reuters.
Ivanov was in charge of lucrative military construction and procurement contracts and is accused of accepting huge bribes in favors worth, according to Russian media reports, at least 10,8 billion rubles ($XNUMX million) in exchange for awarding Defense Ministry contracts to certain companies.
"While few would bet Shoigu would lose his job over the scandal, given his loyalty to Putin, Ivanov's arrest is seen as a sharp turnaround for his boss, whose influence and access to the Kremlin's top man has been boosted by his key role in the Ukraine war," it writes. British agency.
The Moscow Times quoted a senior government official who described the arrest as a serious blow to Shoigu's camp and a source close to the Defense Ministry who said the arrest had more to do with politics and "weakening the position of Sergei Shoigu" than with Ivanov.
Shoigu and the military leadership have occasionally been the target of fierce criticism from Russian war bloggers and nationalists who have accused him of incompetence, especially after a series of withdrawals in 2022.
Shoigu survived an attempted coup led by the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, later killed in a plane crash, who organized a march on Moscow last June to oust him, but his authority was undermined. Putin said those events could have pushed Russia into civil war.
"Feast in the Time of Plague"
Shoigu has since managed to regain Putin's trust, but the arrest of his deputy has caused problems again.
"It indirectly harms Shoigu. Questions are being asked. How is it possible that a person who was close to him and brought by him, managed to steal so much, right under the nose of Shoigu?” said Stanovaja from Carnegie.
Sergei Markov, a former adviser to the Kremlin, predicts that Shoigu, who has been in office since 2012, will remain in office.
"Everyone is wondering - is this perhaps a signal to Shoigu that he will not be in the next government after May 7?" wrote Markov on his official blog.
“Calm down. Being. Shoigu created a new army from the disastrous 2022, which repelled the offensive of the Ukrainian army in 2023. And in 2024, the army is already advancing”.
Much is still unknown about the background of Ivanov's arrest. There are various theories circulating in Moscow about whether the bribery charge is the whole story, with unconfirmed media reports that he could also be charged with treason, which his lawyer has denied.
Some suggest his downfall may have been a love of the Western way of life at a time when Putin says Russia is fighting an existential battle with the West.
Others believe that his family's penchant for luxury European holidays, yachts, Rolls Royces and lavish parties was acceptable before the war, but is now seen as a "plague time feast".
Shoigu has not spoken out about the scandal, and this week toured the space launch facility as if nothing had happened.
The Kremlin told reporters to rely solely on official sources and that the often huge construction projects that Ivanov oversaw - such as the reconstruction of the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol - would not be affected.
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