A few weeks ago, the US warned Russia of a possible attack like the one that happened on March 22. When it comes to terrorism, the secret services deal with their knowledge in a surprisingly collegial manner.
Secret services, as their name suggests, work in secret. They collect data that benefit national security or that are intended to provide their governments with an informational advantage when making political decisions.
And allies can also be spied on: the American secret service for foreign affairs, the NSA, monitored the mobile phone of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel for years. One can assume that Washington would have preferred that the matter had never been discovered.
But in other situations, the secret services share their knowledge. For example, on February 23, 2022, the United States informed Germany and other European partners that Russia would launch an invasion of Ukraine the following night.
When it comes to the terrorist attack that took place in Moscow last Friday, it is a much more unusual case: the information was shared with a country that definitely does not count as an ally.
What information did the US give to Russia?
On March 7, the US Embassy in Moscow warned its citizens in Russia: "Extremists have immediate plans to attack large gatherings in Moscow, including concerts." According to the embassy's recommendation, citizens should avoid mass gatherings for 48 hours.
Suspected Islamists did not attack until 15 days later, but aside from that, the content of the warning matched the Moscow Sala attack in Crocus City, which killed more than 130 people.
A few hours after the first emergency calls, White House National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson referred to the March 7 warning: "The US government has also shared that information with Russian officials, as it has long done under our 'obligation to warn' policy." ", she said. Further details, as well as the source of the intelligence information, are not publicly known.
How seriously did the Russian authorities take the warning?
Apparently not serious enough, according to Peter Neumann, a terrorism researcher at the King's College in London: "This is confirmed by the fact that Vladimir Putin publicly rejected that warning as propaganda five days earlier." "He basically said that it was some kind of psychological war 'that they want to throw me out of the concept' and he didn't take it seriously at all," said Neumann on German radio "Deutschlandfunk".
How normal (or unusual) is it for information to be shared in times of war?
The United States is not a party to the war in Ukraine, but it sees Russia as a threat. After all, Vladimir Putin regularly openly threatens Washington.
"I estimate that the Americans publicly announced that warning, because there is probably no longer any cooperation with the Russian secret services," says Michael Goechenberg, an expert on security issues at the German public broadcaster ARD.
"States, in principle, always warn each other about upcoming or planned terrorist attacks through their secret services, when they learn about them. This has also happened in the past in cooperation with the Russian secret services. But I assume that this cooperation has stopped because of Russia's war against Ukraine," Gechenberg told DW.
How close is intelligence cooperation on international terrorism?
Groups such as the so-called The "Islamic State of Khorasan Province" (ISPK) does not stop at national borders, as recent attacks in Russia, Iran and Afghanistan have proven. In this sense, it is crucial for public security that those who monitor its work in different countries also work together.
In Gochenberg's estimation, it generally works well. "Information, especially between Western intelligence services, is consistently shared. Reports are forwarded and then processed by competent investigative bodies. The tips often turn out to be irrelevant. But where there is something, an investigation is carried out and people are arrested."
Has it always been this way?
The US Secret Service refers to the publicly available "Duty to Warn" directive of the Secret Service Act of 1947, as well as to President Ronald Reagan's 1981 executive order. Michael Goechenberg indicates that this has gained weight in recent years.
"Basically it has to be said that September 11, 2001 played a really big role. It was said that this must not happen to us again, that is, that important information is not transmitted. And that continues until today," says the German expert.
How does the German secret service react to ISPK?
At the same time, he believes that the German authorities have done a good job in recent years in relation to the ISPK: "During the past two years, we have had to deal with situations in which supporters of the ISPK were suspected of planning attacks. Those alleged plans were successfully foiled at an early stage."
In Cologne in the west of Germany, suspected supporters of ISPK, for example, considered the possibility of attacking the famous cathedral there, which is very popular among tourists, as well as a festival. And just seven days ago, investigators in Gera, in central Germany, arrested two men suspected of planning an attack on the Swedish parliament under the banner of the ISPK.
Terrorism researcher Neumann points out that, according to Europol data, the number of attempted attacks increased sharply after October 7 - the day when the Islamist terrorist group Hamas attacked Israel: "Thank God, nothing happened, but the attacks are becoming more frequent," says Neumann. And sometimes, he adds, it's also a matter of luck...
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