The European Union's decision to open negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova is very good and important news, which showed that when the political interests of the EU and the candidate countries coincide, it is possible to have a dynamic that includes reforms in the candidate countries and rewards from the bloc, he told "Vijesti" analyst of the Initiative for European Stability (ESI) from Berlin Adnan Ćerimagić.
He, however, expressed his fear that after the opening of negotiations, Ukraine and Moldova would not fall into "the trap of the Western Balkans and remain trapped in a process that has neither a further goal nor an end".
He added that the behavior of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán speaks in support of this.
"In a theatrical and characteristic way, he let go of this week's decision, but when the next decisions come, if there are new Orbans at the table, from the Netherlands to today-tomorrow Belgium or Austria, then to Ukraine and Moldova, but also to all of us together, the door to positive decisions will be increasingly difficult to open in the best case, in the worst case completely", Ćerimagić assessed
At a summit in Brussels on Thursday, the 26 EU leaders took a historic step by agreeing to start accession talks with war-torn Ukraine, sidestepping complaints from the Hungarian prime minister that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz suggested he leave the room, securing a consensus. Orban warned yesterday that he could still stop Kyiv's accession to the Union.
The ESI analyst says that the EU "unfortunately" has no solutions other than ad hoc, like the one it resorted to the night before.
Where would we be today as Bosnia and Herzegovina if our then war-torn country had been granted EU candidate status in December 1992 and negotiations had begun in December 1993. Or if all of that had at least happened in 2002 and 2003.
The EU Council also decided to grant Georgia candidate status for EU membership, and Bosnia and Herzegovina was promised that its accession efforts would be stepped up as soon as it achieved the "necessary degree of compliance" with the criteria.
"In the case of BiH, the EU, unfortunately, showed that it was not capable of applying its proactive and benevolent approach to Ukraine and Moldova to BiH, from which it demanded and continues to demand much more and more difficult conditions than from Moldova and Ukraine," says Ćerimagić and adds that therefore BiH will remain where it is for the time being.
"The first thing that came to my mind last night was to imagine where we would be today as Bosnia and Herzegovina if our then war-torn country had been given EU candidate status in December 1992 and negotiations had begun in December 1993. Or if all that at least it happened in 2002 and 2003," said the analyst.
When asked why the EU treats BiH in that way, Ćerimagić says that the bloc has never honestly seen its interest in BiH becoming a full member.
"And a large number of decision-makers in the EU do not believe that BiH as it is today can be a member, nor that it can be transformed into a state that can. So it captured Bosnia and Herzegovina in the relationship between a teacher and a bad student who is in the back seat, from whom nothing is expected, who is not offered attention and support, and who is always to blame for everything".
Solz: A friendly proposal to Orban
Although membership is likely to be a distant prospect, the decision at the Brussels summit brought Ukraine one step closer to its long-term strategic goal of integrating with the West.
The German chancellor said yesterday that his proposal to Orban to leave the room during the decision on Ukraine was a "friendly proposal of the Union".
Scholz said that the decision sent a strong signal to the Kremlin and that Russian President Vladimir Putin's assessment that support for Ukraine was waning was a mistake, Reuters reported. He added that he is convinced that a formal agreement between the EU states will be reached in January.
In the event that Orban does not budge at the special summit planned for January, "we have other options to help Ukraine," he added.
EU leaders could not agree on a package of 50 billion euros in financial aid to Kiev due to Hungarian opposition.
Orban, who has for years used conflicts with other EU leaders for electoral gain at home, told state radio that he blocked the aid package for Ukraine to ensure Hungary gets the funds it wants from the EU budget.
"It is a great opportunity for Hungary to make it clear that it must get what it is entitled to. Not half or a quarter," Orban said.
He warned that Hungary can still block Ukraine's negotiations at any time.
"This is a bad decision," said the Hungarian leader. "We can stop this process later, and if necessary, we will pull the brakes, and the final decision will be made by the Hungarian Parliament."
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said at the end of the summit that the EU will work on an operational solution for financing Ukraine ahead of the new EU summit in early 2024.
Reuters reported earlier yesterday that member states could provide aid individually or enter into separate agreements.
French President Emmanuel Macron said that the next few months will be decisive for both Hungary and the EU and added that Orban must not be allowed to take the EU "hostage", reported Reuters.
He told journalists at the end of the summit in Brussels that Orban was shown respect during those talks, but that Orban must respect the EU in return.
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