During the Belgian presidency, it is difficult to expect any new initiatives or dramatic changes in the course of the European Union (EU), and key changes are expected from the Government in Montenegro, which is hoped to meet the conditions that will start the process of closing the negotiation chapters as soon as possible.
This was assessed by analysts from Montenegro and the region, answering the question of "Vijesti" whether Belgium's presidency of the Council of the EU in the next six months could be a good opportunity for the progress of Montenegro, or whether they do not expect anything to change in that regard.
Belgium, which is one of the six founding countries of the EU, will chair the Council of the EU for the 13th time, with the slogan "Protect, strengthen, prepare". According to announcements from Brussels, during the presidency he will focus on six thematic areas - promotion of the rule of law and democracy, strengthening of economic competitiveness, continuation of the green transition, protection of borders and people and promotion of global Europe. It was emphasized that they will take special care to maintain European unwavering support for Ukraine...
Đukanović: The government is aware that it must try to take advantage of this opportunity
Associate Professor at the University of Donja Gorica, Nikoleta Đukanović, told "Vijesti" that presiding over the Council and prioritizing the enlargement and relations with the Western Balkans region is very important, especially because of the necessary greater presence of the EU in the Balkans, and the changes that Belgium can bring in the context of strengthening democracy in the EU. , but also in the candidate countries, can revive the enlargement process.
"When it comes to possible changes in relation to the negotiation process between Montenegro and the EU, I think that the key changes are expected from the Government in Montenegro, rather than the approach of the Union towards our country", Đukanović assessed.
She emphasized that a lot is expected from the current Government after more than three years of failed experiments, and that she believes that her fate will primarily be determined by the success she will achieve in the negotiation process.
"I think that the Government is fully aware of these expectations and will try to use this opportunity, despite the heterogeneity of the political actors that make it up. It remains to be seen whether he will be able to achieve concrete results, because there are many obstacles. Among them, the dominant ones are those that concern the presence of numerous and opposing political structures, among which there are also those who do not know what the process of Europeanization entails, nor do they have the will to complete that process," Đukanović pointed out.
She emphasized that it should not be forgotten that, apart from political problems and technical challenges, the key problem that is being ignored is that in Montenegro, just like in other Balkan countries, the process of adopting democratic values, as well as the affirmation of traditional values, such as religion, has slowed down. , nation and others, which slows down and complicates the process of democratization.
"It seems that the countries of the Balkans today are torn between the concepts of re-traditionalization and modernization. Many studies show, and Montenegro stands out in particular, that the local and national framework is primary in relation to the European context, although the dominance of subnational frameworks of collective identification also exists in the EU, not only in the Balkans," she said.
Đukanović pointed out that the EU has many crises over which it is chronically divided and that this has been going on for many years.
"However, due to the Russian-Ukrainian war and current conflicts in the world, these crises are even more pronounced. The hostage of the EU as an unfinished political community is its enlargement policy, which is why there are initiatives to reform it, along with the institutional reform of the Union that is expected," said Đukanović.
She said that an additional problem that exists is the so-called "nationalization of enlargement policy", i.e. the tendency for member states to increasingly influence enlargement policy, putting their national interests in the foreground, and often block, complicate, or politicize the process, which makes development impossible. EU enlargement policy as a single policy.
"However, the failed reforms, the modest results in the accession process and the lack of political will among the countries of the Western Balkans and the increasingly obvious collapse of democracy in the region cannot be justified by the crises the Union is facing, and I think that in the coming period, the further accession process will be much more depend on the candidate countries themselves and their speed and quality of implementing reforms, rather than on the consolidation of the European Union in relation to the crises it is facing", Đukanović assessed.
Two billion, reforms and work
The analyst of the Initiative for European Stability (ESI) from Berlin, Adnan Ćerimagić, pointed out that there is a belief in the EU that everything possible has been done on their part regarding the Western Balkans.
"In the December conclusions of the EU member states, a message was sent that the EU wants to speed up the expansion of the EU to the Western Balkans, but the New Plan for the growth of the region is also supported, which brings with it up to two billion euros in grants over the next four years. Now, that's what they think in Brussels, it's up to the governments of the region to accept those offers, draw up reform plans and start work," said Ćerimagić.
He said that, taking this into account, it is difficult to expect any new initiatives or dramatic changes in the course of EU policy during Belgium's EU presidency.
"Of course, there is hope that the new Montenegrin government will meet the conditions that will start the process of closing the negotiation chapters as soon as possible. So that, through the example of Montenegro, they could send a message to other countries in the region that fulfilling the conditions is worth it, and leads closer to EU membership," Ćerimagić pointed out.
A junior researcher at the Center for European Policies, Đorđe Dimitrov, said that the enlargement has unequivocally returned to the EU agenda, as one of the most important priorities:
"In line with the program of the presidency, Belgium is expected to put a special focus on the EU's capacity to integrate new members and advance thinking on the internal reforms needed to enlarge the EU."
Dimitrov said that the announcement that enlargement will be included in the EU's Strategic Agenda for the period 2024-2029 clearly indicates a long-term commitment to this issue.
"Belgium intends to develop an enlargement map and create a calendar plan for a working group to focus on enlargement, thus demonstrating its commitment to this process. We can also expect that there will be discussions within the EU about what phased accession is and what it should look like," Dimitrov pointed out.
He emphasized that it should be borne in mind that progress depends to the greatest extent on the candidates themselves, since it is up to them to implement the necessary reforms.
Threat of fines
Đukanović assessed that various types of sanctions against members have not had a major political effect so far, so it is difficult to expect that this will happen in the future.
Belgian Prime Minister Alexandre De Croix recently stated that Belgium will start applying Article 7 during the Presidency. Article seven of the Treaty of Lisbon gives the possibility for members to decide on the suspension of the rights of member states that violate the foundations and values on which the Union rests...
Đukanović points out that the EU has been facing numerous internal difficulties and external challenges for years, such as Russian aggression against Ukraine, crimes in Gaza, the consequences of Brexit, the economic crisis, the migrant crisis, and populism.
"However, we should not forget the key internal problems concerning the increasingly present fear of the growing right, the crisis of liberalism, the restoration of sovereignty, anti-liberalism, nationalism. So, in the Union today we have a kind of renewal of anti-liberal nationalist sovereignty, which is why the question is whether and how to get away from those ideals and promises of a united Europe. When we analyze the roots of these crises, the problem of relations between the EU and the nation is particularly significant," Đukanović assessed.
She said that the EU has not been able to deal with these problems until now, precisely because of the strong state in relation to the community.
"Belgium, like the old founding democratic states, with this announcement tries to suppress the occurrences of the violation of democracy by the member states, reminding of Article 7 of the Treaty of Lisbon, which gives the possibility for the members to make a decision on the suspension of the rights of the member states that violate the foundations and values on which the Union rests, and which primarily relate to freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights and the rights of minorities", said Đukanović.
Ćerimagić emphasizes that one of the ideas being worked on within the EU is that the member states, during the presidency of Belgium, prepare some kind of road map for EU reforms.
"What is necessary, what is possible, and within what time frame. And to try to agree on some document during the first meeting of the European Council after the elections for the European Parliament in June this year. It is a very ambitious plan and it is difficult to say what will come of it. What is certain is that for many EU member states, strengthening and preserving the rule of law and democracy in the EU itself has become increasingly important," said Ćerimagić.
Dimitrov said that the erosion of the rule of law and democracy in some member states has been a serious trend in the EU for some time. This problem, as he pointed out, is most pronounced in Hungary, which many describe as an autocracy due to restrictions on media freedom, independence of the judiciary and other democratic values:
"This becomes particularly significant considering that Hungary will take over the EU presidency in June, and according to the rules of procedure, Viktor Orbán will take over the presidency of the European Council if the majority of member states do not agree on the choice of a successor to Charles Michel by then, who announced that he will to resign from the position of president of this EU institution in order to run for the elections to the European Parliament".
Dimitrov indicated that this development poses challenges for the EU, as the presidency of a country facing criticism for moves against the rule of law could lead to tensions.
Dimitrov notes that Article 7 of the Treaty allows the EU to suspend certain rights of a member in case there is a constant violation of fundamental values:
"In this way, member states can limit the Hungarian presidency - for example, prevent Hungary from presiding over Council meetings where the rule of law will be discussed, or take it away entirely. However, this is unlikely, because Article 7 has never been successfully implemented so far because it is decided unanimously".
He pointed out that the problem of democracy and the rule of law exists in all countries that strive for EU membership, and the EU constantly emphasizes that this will be a key criterion for gaining membership.
"Therefore, without reforms in this area, there will be no new members".
The extraordinary summit will show how capable the EU is of responding to major challenges
Answering the question of what could be expected from the extraordinary summit of EU leaders on February 1, at which they should reach an agreement on the revision of the seven-year budget, Đukanović said that by revising the budget, members can show their will when it comes to the further development of enlargement.
"However, it is to be expected that in the coming period the member states will be more preoccupied with the neglected integration and solving internal challenges, than they will motivate the candidate states to further fulfill the conditions for membership to a greater extent than they do today."
Ćerimagić said that whether the EU heads of state and government will agree on finances during this extraordinary summit, above all on support for Ukraine, and what kind of agreement it will be, a temporary or permanent solution, will show how capable the EU is of responding to major challenges .
"But it will also show to what extent some EU leaders, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, will use the topic of Ukraine for pre-election purposes in the run-up to the European Parliament elections."
Dimitrov assessed that the discussion on the revision of the multi-year financial framework of the EU has been taking place since June 2023, when the European Commission presented its proposal for strengthening the budget in order to adequately respond to new challenges.
"However, due to the disagreement of the member states, the original proposal was subjected to revision by the member states through certain reductions and reallocation of funds. At a summit in December, the 26 member states reached an agreement, but Hungary blocked 50 billion euros in aid to Ukraine. However, there are now hints that Hungary is ready to lift the veto on aid to Ukraine".
He said that at the summit on February 1, there will be an attempt to overcome Budapest's veto, whereby Hungary will try to use the fact that unanimity is required for adoption in order to extract certain concessions.
"If Hungary maintains its position, it can be expected that the remaining 26 member states will try to reach an agreement among themselves. However, it could only be a temporary solution, and in the long term it might be necessary to make concessions to Hungary in order to reach a final agreement," said Dimitrov.
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